The Israel “will fight until victory” in Gaza, pledged Benjamin Netanyahu, after the release of the first hostages from Hamasthe mother and daughter from Chicago who were reunited yesterday (20.10.2023) with their family after almost 2 weeks.
The representative of Hamas’ armed wing of the Brigades, Ezzedine al-Qassam, announced their release for “humanitarian reasons” and Israel confirmed it a short time later.
However, hundreds of other people of various nationalities remain in the hands of Hamas.
Analysts are trying to decipher what this development means for Israel’s upcoming ground operation.
Indicative is the analysis of Sky News correspondent in the Middle East Alistar Bunkal who emphasizes that “for all the good news last night, this remains the largest hostage crisis in israel’s history» reminding that 200 hostages are still being held.
“The release was largely due to mediation conducted by Qatarhaving American support.
Some of Hamas’s senior political leaders live in exile in Doha and maintain an office there.
While some would wonder why Qatar, a Western ally, allows Hamas to remain there, some others would argue that what happened yesterday is an example of why it is better to have Hamas around than to be exiled to an unfriendly state.
If Qatar closed the office and fired Hamas, it would probably go to Tehran and maybe Moscow. The lines of communication, so vital at such a time, would be lost.”
The Sky News Correspondent investigating the possible reasons behind the release of the two women, argues that the “humanitarian reasons” excuse given by Hamas could possibly hide a myriad of other reasons.
He continues: “I find it unlikely that concessions were made to Hamas in exchange for their return, more likely this was an attempt by the group to appear somewhat more sympathetic. Many of the hostages remaining in Gaza have serious and even life-threatening medical conditions: cancer, kidney disease, autism and diabetes are just a few we know of. Their ages range from nine months to 90 years and most are civilians rather than soldiers, although a large number of IDF soldiers were captured.”
According to the Sky News correspondent further hostage releases will be a more difficult task.
“Their fate is much more complicated, I can’t see Hamas handing back Israeli soldiers without demanding significant concessions in return, likely the release of thousands of Palestinian prisonersbut the negotiators will convince Hamas that there is no reason why it should be holding women, children and the elderly captive.”
And then he addresses what will happen to the Israeli ground operation in Gaza, explaining the pluses for Israel of giving negotiators time and the minuses of delaying the ground operation.
“There are unconfirmed reports that the US and some European countries are urging Israel to suspend any plans it may have for an imminent ground invasion of Gaza, in order to give more time to the hostage negotiations.
This position, assuming it is true, will be reinforced by last night’s events. Undoubtedly, securing the release of the hostages through diplomatic channels is preferable to a military rescue operation. With so many hostages still in Gaza, and likely scattered throughout the Strip both overland and underground, kicking in doors and shooting in is fraught with extreme danger for Israeli soldiers – and the hostages themselves.
While there is certainly logic to this, having spent the last fortnight preparing their forces, Israel may want to move sooner rather than later, giving Hamas more time to regroup and prepare for the coming battle».
The Synod in Cairo
As noted by Reuters the leaders who took part in the summit organized by Egypt in Cairo on Saturday they were asked to find a solution how to resolve the crisis that turned into a war in the Gaza Strip, without Hamas in the area anymorebut also without the need for the forced removal of the population which the Arab countries of the region do not want for any reason.
The solution is made even more difficult by absence of important players who move the threads. Israel which very obviously could not attend and Iran which supports Hamas and Hezbollah.
In practice the USA was also absent who were represented at a low level, only by the chargé d’affaires of the embassy in Cairo. Absent – but not their countries – were Western leaders like o German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron.
The Arab countries, as noted by Reutersthey emphasized that eit is time to restart peace efforts to end the cycle of violence between israel and palestinians.
However, apart from this common wish, issuing a joint declaration after the end of the work was almost impossible from the start. The balances and diverging interests are many, while there were disagreements in the background about any references to Hamas or Israel’s right to self-defense.
With Israel’s ground offensive widely seen as a matter of time, leaders from Arab countries have warned against the displacement of Palestinian populations. Arab states fear that the attack could drive Gazans even into neighboring states – as happened when Palestinians fled or were forced from their homes in the 1948 war after the creation of Israel.
Israel has repeatedly asked residents living in the northern part of the Gaza Strip to move south before ground operations begin. But this is very difficult in a narrow strip of land with a very high population density.
As pointed out, among others, by the King of Jordan, Abdullah, the forced internal displacement of Palestinians “would be a war crime according to international law and red line for all of us». Jordan, home to many Palestinian refugees and their descendants, fears a wider flare-up would give Israel the opportunity to expel Palestinians en masse from the West Bank.
In the same context was the speech of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, who emphasized that Palestinians should not be displaced or expelled from their country. “We won’t leave” was the message he sent.
The host of the meeting, the president of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisisaid his country opposes the displacement of Palestinians in Egypt’s largely desert Sinai region, adding that the only solution is an independent Palestinian state.
Source: News Beast

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