War in Ukraine: Fears of Islamic State Return – Can ISIS Win the Invasion?

Anxiety and fear has caused observers the possibility of war in Ukraine and its financial consequences to actively contribute to its reconstruction Islamic State.

In February 2022, and especially at the beginning of the month, during a US invasion of northern Syria, the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraisi, detonated an explosive device, killing himself and his family. Only a few days later o ISIS who once controlled a third of Syria and Iraq announced a “blessed campaign of revenge” calling on his supporters to take advantage of the fact that the attention of “infidels” is on Ukraine.

The appeal may not have been heard in Europe yet, but some can not hide, as broadcast in a related report by the Deutsche Welle their concern.

Because social unrest is considered a fertile ground

Among those worried about the reconstruction of the Islamic State is the editor-in-chief of the Egyptian al-Ahram Ezat Ibrahim Youssef, who recently warned that terrorists may try to exploit “a new wave of social unrest that will affected by the pandemic and the effects of the crisis on Ukraine».

At the same time, the Arab League sounded the alarm, with President Ahmad Abul Gheit warning of similar “side effects” due to the war but also due to climate change.

The biggest concern is the fact that as long as the war in Ukraine continues, its consequences will disintegrate countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia and Libya, which are already suffering from grain shortages, ever-increasing fuel and food prices, and inflation. All this at a time when NGOs are also focusing their efforts on helping the Ukrainians.

The financial problems

Perhaps for some in the above countries, joining the Islamic State is a last resort in trying to survive. The same thing happened in 2015, when thousands of young Muslims left Europe or North Africa behind to fight in Iraq and Syria.

“In Tunisia, the problems that led so many young men to join the Islamic State were of an economic nature,” said Anne Speckhardt of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE). “Islamic State has offered paid work, free housing and women for marriage or as sex slaves to young people in their country who have been deprived of money, work and opportunities.”

ICSVE cites testimonies even today, from Tripoli, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, that the Islamic State and its affiliates are recruiting young people for up to $ 500 a month. «Factors such as unemployment and rising commodity prices fuel a sense of hopelessness.“one’s anger and desire to shift responsibility to a clear cause,” adds Speckhard.

The Islamic State has shrunk

At the same time others appear more reassuring. Indeed, political instability and power gaps have fueled the Islamic State in the past. The group had even issued similar threats during the outbreak of the pandemic, that the global health crisis would deplete the reimgs of its enemies, leading to a relaxation of security measures and opening opportunities for counterattack.

In its current form, however, the Islamic State bears no resemblance to the Salafists who proclaimed the establishment of a caliphate.

“In the worst case scenario, the war in Ukraine may predispose more people to believe in Islamic State,” said Charlie Winter, an ISIS researcher and director of research at Britain’s ExTrac. “But I find it very unlikely that we will see a mobilization or something of a similar scale to what we have seen in previous years,” he concludes.