War in Ukraine – Sotiris Serbos: Russia made huge mistakes in carrying out its military operation

H seventh day of the war finds Russia launching a full-scale offensive in Ukraine with the Kharkiv and Kherson regions hit hard, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov making covert threats saying (according to the RIA news agency) that if a DG World War breaks out, will involve the use of nuclear weapons and with the scope of talks between the two countries being more blurred than ever.

“What has happened so far and what is expected to happen, as well as the attitude of both Russia and the West,” he told Newsbeast. Sotiris Serbos, Associate Professor of International Politics at the Democritus University of Thrace. Here is what he told us:

“What we are seeing now is an attempt to change Russia’s attitude, operationally speaking, after what at first seemed easy, but in the end it was neither so easy nor so fast. We naturally expect Russia to put more pressure on Kyiv, where Russian forces continue to grow.

No one should rule out the possibility of heavy artillery attacks, and possibly rocket attacks, in order to provoke mass evacuations of civilians and to evacuate Kyiv. Russia does not want hand-to-hand fighting, it wants its citizens to leave the capital. The conquest of Kiev will be a highly symbolic event for the Russians.

At the level of the big picture, we see Russia continuing the effort to separate Ukraine with the Dnieper natural border. It remains to be seen if he wishes to continue to Odessa. It should be noted that Lukashenko mentioned this city yesterday. If that happens then we will wait and see what happens to all these lands the next day. In other words, whether Russia will want to keep some of them with various forms of regime or whether it will enter into the logic of negotiating with the Ukrainian government in the context of mutual compromises.

From now on, however, Russia is waging a battle against time, taking into account the dense network of sanctions it receives, a network whose intensity and size were not taken into account.. Along with the difficulties it encounters on the battlefield itself, we conclude that Russia wants to move the business forward quickly by shaping a series of accomplishments and acquisitions to put them on a negotiating table. Of course, the Russian war machine still has many arrhythmias. At the same time, however, the days and operational capabilities of the Ukrainians are limited, not in terms of their combat readiness but in terms of the objective burden on the field. And the humanitarian pressure that the country is under is already strong.

Russia, however, can not now pursue its original goal, which is to decapitate Zelensky and install a pro-Russian puppet in his place.a. This is no longer the dominant scenario.

As for the talks on whether the second round will take place at the end of the day, in no case have they led, nor will they take place immediately, to fertile ground. Besides, we are seeing an activity in her part in the last hours from Beijing, which shows us that China believes that the Zelensky government will continue to exist, that is, they do not see a “rapid decline” in Ukraine. “At the moment, China is allying itself with Russia, but it seems that with some care, the former wants to put pressure on the diplomatic solution.”

The unprecedented tight front of Europe

“There is a reason that in this war the West appears with a tight front. Russia has made huge mistakes in carrying out its military operation choosing a very grandiose scenario but without supporting it with the appropriate forces, claiming that he would actually take a walk.

At the same time, he underestimated the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians. In the first two days of the war, the West began to awaken. At this timing, the Ukrainian president passed the leadership test at the same time and, together with the Ukrainian flag, finally held high the flag of Europe, because Ukraine is a European country..

Taking into account the impact of international public opinion and the pressures on governments, the West and Europe as a whole are now going through a period of regaining their undermined collective confidence, trying to transform into a serious policy exercise all the blow it has received. the core of the western value system. In this part of the awareness, in the first 24 hours, Ukraine helped the West more than the West helped Ukraine..

It should be noted that yesterday was a very emotionally charged session of the European Parliament in which Zelenski spoke. So Europe is now feeling renewed and strengthened in its moral commitment to the next day. What is apparent is that it will assist Ukraine financially in dealing with the damage it has suffered from the invasion. Europe seems ready to raise its glove and respond.

Finally, Putin “Succeeded” in reviving NATO and reuniting Europe, where Russia operated with the logic of “divide and rule”.

And you know this group is not only at the level of prime ministers and institutions but also at the level of citizens. It is a very big and majority current in the citizens but also in the public opinion, that this war concerns not only Ukraine but the whole West.

Gradually, this invasion will be a test of leadership, not only for Zelensky, who passed it, but also for the democracies of Europe. And note the following for the Greeks- If this battle is lost for the West and won by Russia, a very bad precedent will be set for Greece, which has at its core international law in matters of national sovereignty.ς. And of course, let us not forget our strong ties with Ukraine, which go back centuries. Odessa means Friendly Society. Ukraine for us is also a flourishing Greek community and Greek community and is even the role of religion, the second Hagia Sophia, the Ukrainians who were baptized Christians by us. “Let us take all this into account in the way the Greeks feel about this war.”

Russia’s surprise at sanctions

“Russia had made a plan for the sanctions it would accept, but in no case did it expect this size of sanctions. The game as I said changed the first two 24 hours. In addition to itself, Russia had made very bad calculations for Ukraine itself.

Sanctions, of course, will not turn the tide of the war but will cost Russia. It’s too early to say for sure but there will certainly be resentment in the establishment of the Russian economic elite but also in the security system around Putin. There will apparently be cracks there. “Especially the sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia were something they had not evaluated.”

The mistakes of the West

“In the 1990s, an opportunity was lost when the West, and especially the United States, should have evaluated it more carefully. a scenario, albeit conditional, of a possible inclusion of then-Russia, pre-Putin Russia in a new world architectureIn the end, that scenario did not qualify. It is very likely that the story was written differently. Also, after the 2014 crisis and the illegal annexation of Crimea, the masks fell when the US and Europe did not proceed with a credible deterrence of the situation or an active diplomacy to avoid what we finally saw happening today.

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, the above events, can equalize or wash away the invasion. Let’s take a closer look at Putin’s speech, which for the first 30 minutes made no reference to NATO. Instead, it unfolded a narrative denying Ukraine’s right to exist as a state and as a nation, calling it a “historic mistake.” There is a serious stake here for those who want to revise the rules of the game. Alas if we let the rules be written now again by authoritarian regimes that will include us, without us. “As far as the moment of the war is concerned, we are at the end of the beginning and not at the beginning of the end.”