2022 may be coming to an end, but the war in Ukraine is also in progress BBC who contacted analysts, believes that 2023 will be critical, since the course of the battlefields will decide whether peace will come.
As it states bbc.com there are 5 scenarios on the outcome of the war, with analysts placing particular weight on the upcoming Russian counteroffensive, expected in the spring, as much of the Russian military is massed on Russia’s border with Ukraine.
Here are the 5 scenarios for the outcome of the fighting in 2023 in the war in Ukraine:
“Russian counterattack in spring will be key”
THE Mike Clarkdeputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Exeter, UK, points out that those who seek to invade another country, anywhere on the great Eurasian steppes, are ultimately doomed to winter there.
Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin had to keep their forces on the move to withstand the cold on the steppes and now Putin is preparing his forces for the snows to plan a new Russian offensive in the spring.
Both sides need a break, but the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to continue, and “we can expect them to keep up the pressure, at least in the Donbas,” Clarke points out.
As for how the conflict will come to an end, she points out that the cost of the war – both human and logistical – will “break” the commitment of the Russian political elite. The key, he emphasizes, is within Russia.
Previous wars in which a miscalculation has been pivotal, such as Vietnam for the United States or Afghanistan for the Soviet Union, have ended just this way. Internal political conditions changed in the country that made him, making exit the only viable option. But this can only be done if the West maintains support for Ukraine amid mounting pressure within the alliance over the cost of the war.
“No other outcome than Russian defeat”
On his part, Mr Ben Hodgesformer commander of United States Army Europe, emphasizes that it is too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv, but the moment of war is with Ukraine and there is no doubt that it will win the war, probably in 2023.
As he explains, things will move more slowly during the winter, but the Ukrainian forces will be able to cope better than the Russians because of the equipment sent by Britain, Canada and Germany. By January, Ukraine could be able to begin the final phase to liberate Crimea.
“We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapid improvement of Ukraine’s logistical situation, I see no other result than a Russian defeat,” he adds.
As he underlines, the withdrawal of the Russians from Kherson led him, in part, to this conclusion. The event gave a psychological boost to the Ukrainian people, brought deep embarrassment to the Kremlin and gave the Ukrainians a key operational advantage – Crimea is within range of Ukrainian weapons systems.
“We expect more of the same”
THE David Gentlemanan Israel-based military analyst, does not dwell on how the war will end, but on what each side is seeking.
Russia keeps half of its deployed forces on standby and can mobilize them when the moment comes. The capture of Lugansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but a major Russian move, such as a move from the south to Pavlograd to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas, is less likely.
It is more likely, as he estimates, that the Russian side will maintain the same tactics. Continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on the Ukrainian rear will complete this attrition strategy.
Source: News Beast
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
