By David Von Drehle *
Let us listen without hesitation to the French whispers that the United States is too aggressive towards Russia. Let’s avoid the easy jokes about the French trend for tradition. Suppose France tries to play the “good cop” against the “bad cop” who is the US Secretary of Defense, in front of the common goal which is to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. In this case, what exactly is this scenario?
Speaking in Poland on April 25, Lloyd Austin said his country’s goal was to weaken Russia so much that it could not re-launch attacks like the one in Ukraine. Since then, it is a fact that Russia has weakened even more. Although the bombing of Ukraine continues, the Russian air force has abandoned the goal of gaining control of the air. The army has retreated from Kharkov and is trying to retain its positions in Izium. The navy, after the sinking of “Moscow”, is no longer preparing for an amphibious attack on Odessa.
At the strategic level, Russia is doing even worse. Major Chinese technology companies are avoiding trade with Moscow. And the scene is complemented by Finland’s request to join NATO and Sweden’s preparations to do the same.
And here the “good cop” comes into play. In a speech shortly after Putin’s Victory Day speech, President Macron stressed that the West is not at war with Russia and must avoid the temptation to seek humiliation. This does not mean that the “good cop” is still not on the side of the “cops”. France has provided arms to Ukrainians, imposed sanctions on Russia and sent experts to gather information on Russian war crimes. The alliance remains strong.
The “good cop” offers Putin an honest way out. The problem is that the Russian president refuses to admit that he made a mistake on an epic scale, causing the loss of thousands of lives, destroying cities and undermining the future of his country.
The curse of totalitarian governments is that they kill people because they tell the truth: if they do it many times, they end up with a country of liars. Putin was lied to about the readiness of his army, about the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians and about the weaknesses of the West. Now he is lying to himself that he has many alternatives in front of him.
Whether Russia will be further weakened is not ultimately a question for the United States, but for Putin. The longer he continues the war, the weaker his country becomes. It would therefore be wise for him to accept Paris’s proposal to negotiate the terms of his retreat. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that he has this wisdom.
David Von Drehle is a Washington Post columnist and author
Source: Capital
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