Water availability in Brazil could be reduced by 40% by 2040, says ANA report

Brazil could lose 40% of water availability by 2040, according to a study by the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) released this Wednesday (31).

The research “Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Brazil” was launched in a live broadcast by the agency that kicked off the 2024 Water Journey, which will have the theme “Water Unites Us, Climate Moves Us”.

Participating in the live broadcast were ministers Waldez Góes, of Regional Development, and Jader Filho, of Cities, and the executive secretary of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, João Paulo Capobianco, in addition to the agency's interim director-president, Ana Carolina Argolo, and interim directors Nazareno Araújo and Marcelo Medeiros.

The unprecedented research presents the effects of climate change on water availability in Brazil.

The survey is divided into three time frames: from 2015 to 2024; from 2041 to 2070 and from 2071 to 2100. “Our study was based on several climate models. Therefore, it is not just a climate model, based on global climate models, several models were developed, which made us identify a consensus, a convergence of scenarios that allows the manager to anticipate and make decisions in the formulation of public policies”, explained Nazareno Araújo.

According to the publication, water availability may decrease in the river basins of the North, Northeast, Central-West and part of the Southeast. According to research, there is a trend in the northeast region of an increase in the number of stretches of intermittent rivers – which dry up temporarily. The region should also see a reduction in rainfall volumes, intensifying the drought in the semi-arid region and on the coastal strip.

In the South region, unlike the others, there is a tendency for water availability to increase by up to 5% by 2040. However, there is a greater possibility of climate unpredictability, such as droughts and floods, as has already occurred in recent years. years.

For the North, a region that is home to a large part of the Amazon, the study points out that there is a prospect of more frequent and intense droughts, in addition to a reduction in river flows and average rainfall volumes.

Concentration of large urban centers, the Southeast tends to have a reduction in flows due to climate change, which causes a decrease in water availability in river basins. The survey still points to an uncertain scenario regarding future climate conditions in the Central-West.

Regarding greenhouse gas emissions, ANA highlights the need to contain emissions to avoid a drought in three of Brazil's five regions.

Water Journey 2024

After announcing the theme “Water Unites Us, Climate Moves Us”, minister Waldez Góes said that the theme requires “very great synergy”. When talking about the climate events that will hit the country in 2023, the minister recalled the cities that declared an emergency.

“Last year, just to give you an idea, we had 2,123 municipalities living in an emergency situation. That's how big it is. Either due to lack or excess of water”, said Góes. In his speech, minister Jader Filho pointed out that preparation work for the events is necessary. “When it comes to urbanism nowadays, it deals with two themes: adaptation and resilience”, highlighted the Minister of Cities.

Representing Minister Marina Silva, the executive secretary of the MMA, João Paulo Capobianco, cited the 100 million Brazilians who still do not have access to sanitation, according to figures from the National Sanitation Information System, of the Ministry of Cities.

The secretary also recalled that of the 88 programs proposed by the Multi-Year Plan, approved by the National Congress last year, 50 are transversal programs focused on environmental and climate issues. “The governance and management of water resources is one of the main tools for adapting to the impacts of climate change,” said Capobianco.