Currency strategists at UOB Group note that EUR / USD downside momentum expected to remain unchanged for now.
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24 hour view: “EUR / USD moved sideways between 1.1713 and 1.1749 yesterday before closing little changed at 1.1723 (-0.02%). Despite consolidation, the underlying tone appears to have weakened a bit. From here, EUR / USD could go down, but a sustained decline below 1.1700 is unlikely. Resistance is at 1.1740, followed by 1.1755. “
Next 1-3 weeks: “We are expecting a weaker EUR / USD from about 2 weeks ago. In our last update last Friday (September 17, EUR / USD at 1.1765), we highlighted that ‘the strong downward momentum suggests that further downward momentum is likely. EUR / USD weakness’ and that ‘the level to focus on is 1.1725.’ The EUR / USD tumbled to 1.1698 on Monday (Sept 20) but has not been able to move much on the downside since then. The short-term downside has eased somewhat and, although further weakness in EUR / USD is not ruled out, the odds of a decline to the August low near 1.1665 are not high. However, the weak phase of EUR / USD it is considered intact as long as it does not move above the ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.1775. “
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