Welt: The German Employment Service expects 410,000 Ukrainian unemployed

Refugees from Ukraine have been entitled to regular social assistance since June, according to Welt am Sonntag. The Federal Employment Service estimates that hundreds of thousands of people are entitled to benefits. The share of immigrants in the total number of unemployed could soon increase to more than 50%.

The Federal Employment Service (BA) expects an increase in unemployment rates due to refugees from Ukraine. The agency expects about “410,000 Ukrainian employers to apply for benefits” in the coming weeks.

This can be found in a confidential document entitled “Calculation of a scenario for the access of Ukrainian refugees to SGB II”. It determines what social benefits for jobseekers under the Second Social Code (Sozialgesetzbuch II) can be claimed by Ukrainians who have taken refuge in Germany.

The document is available to Welt am Sonntag and was presented to state and municipal representatives this week to prepare them for the challenges. He states that “by the end of the year, 746,000 Ukrainian jobseekers who are able to work are expected to be in employment centers.”

However, the Employment Service (BA) points out that the “number of Ukrainian refugees who have arrived since 24 February and are registered in the Central Register of Foreigners (KMA)” is subject to “high instability”, for example due to sub- and double registration or return trips. Due to open borders, it is not possible to accurately record inputs and outputs. The “mathematical data for Ukrainian people eligible for benefits” are “orientational in nature and should be interpreted accordingly,” the BA document said.

In recent weeks, refugees from Ukraine, mostly women with children, have received support under the law on benefits for asylum seekers. From 1 June, they were allowed to switch to “normal” basic benefits, which are also received by local unemployed and recognized asylum seekers.

If the Federal Employment Agency’s scenario is verified, the percentage of immigrants in the total number of unemployed will exceed 50%. According to the employment agency in the newspaper, according to the latest data of December, 47% of the unemployed had an immigrant background.

Apart from the unemployed, the so-called beneficiaries of supplementary benefits are also part of the beneficiaries of benefits. In total, there were 3.6 million of them, in December, two million of them were immigrants, accounting for 56%. In the case of scenario BA, more than 60 percent of all employable benefit recipients, known worldwide as Hartz IV beneficiaries, will soon have an immigrant background.

If many Ukrainians want to stay in Germany even after the end of the Russian aggression, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) also expects a very good chance of joining. There are almost no illiterates among them, and among the 80,000 people who have already enrolled in language and cultural mediation integration courses, there is great enthusiasm.

For Benjamin Beckmann, head of the integration department, “language acquisition is the most important thing, so that Ukrainian women do not just end up in support staff, but can use the qualifications they already have,” she said. “Often the emphasis is solely on a very rapid transition to the labor market. We see it a little differently: probably a little later, but then right.”
In Berlin, the city with the highest number of war refugees in Germany, only a handful of the approximately 35,000 Ukrainians registered with the authorities have found work so far. Only “lower three-digit range” have Ukrainians in particular entered the labor market, Tanja Franzke of the Berlin-Brandenburg Employment Service said when asked.

Even in medium-sized cities, such as Gotha in Thuringia or Herne in North Rhine-Westphalia, refugees who already have a job are rather rare, according to a survey conducted by the newspaper in German administrations. However, there are also indications that job search may be somewhat faster in small communities.

In Tann, Hesse, according to Mayor Mario Dänner, “of the 43 Ukrainians currently registered, 21 are of working age. And at least four have already found work – two as cooks and two in the construction trade.” The first Ukrainians have already returned to their homes, he said. “Once the situation in their home countries has eased a bit, many of them want to return immediately.