In U.S. presidential elections, the outcome is often decided in a few states that do not have a consistent partisan leaning. These states are known as pendulum states in English “swing states” or “battleground states”.
As the name suggests, pendulum states “swing” from one side to the other, depending on the electoral cycle. Lucas Leite, professor of International Relations at FAAP, explains that the metaphor of a pendulum is precisely because these states “do not necessarily have a fixed ideological or partisan identification.”
Political scientist and Insper professor, Leandro Consentino analyzes that pendulum states are considered the big unknown of the election . “With each new election the results vary. There are states where we cannot predict until the moment of the election which side will win.”
As can be seen in the interactive map above pendulum states do not have a trend or tradition in relation to voting. Unlike states like New York, which traditionally votes for Democrats, or Texas, which has a tradition of favoring Republicans, swing states are territories of high unpredictability.
Professor Carlos Gustavo Poggio, from Berea College, however, explains that this configuration of American states was not always like this.
California, for example, was once a Republican state, but a swing state is one that swings from one party to another in successive elections or by a very small margin of votes.
Lucas Leite illustrates the concept using the example of Georgia, a state that was decisive for Democrat Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, where the margin of vote difference was very low, less than 0.3%.
Arizona and Georgia are swing states that used to vote more Republican, at least Georgia used to have a very common Republican vote. Now, the state has become a swing state and has changed elections, as in Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.
Factors that make a state pendulum
Demographic and urban-rural issues, according to Leite, are, in most cases, decisive for the region’s voting tendency.
“While rural areas remain very close to Republicans, from a more religious, conservative perspective, in urban centers we see a more progressive voter or at least not so conservative, with a slightly different appeal to issues that are important to these groups,” he explains.
ESPM International Relations professor Denilde Holzhacker explains that social and population changes are also factors that influence a state’s voting trends. She explains using the examples of Arizona and Florida:
“There has been a huge shift in the population in Arizona in recent years, so what was traditionally pro-Republican has shifted to being Democratic, but even so it still remains like a pendulum, as it is not certain whether this is a process that will continue.”
“Florida, as another example, for many years was a swing state because it had a concentration of Latinos, who were more Democrat than Republican. But in the last election, the state has solidified itself as a pro-Republican state,” she adds.
What are pendulum states and why do they matter?
In the images, you can see the projections of the CNN of the configuration of states for the United States elections.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, indicated in yellow, are the swing states. And for Kamala or Trump to win the race, it is essential that they win the votes of these regions.
The importance of swing states is due to the voting system of the Electoral College in the United States, which is an indirect vote. Instead of the population voting directly for the candidate they want to elect for President, they end up electing the party’s “delegates” in a state.
Each state has a number of “delegates” proportional to its population, totaling 538, including 3 for the District of Columbia.
“So what matters is winning in the states. Whether a Democrat wins the state of California by a million votes or by one vote makes no difference whatsoever in terms of the fact that that Democratic candidate will take all of the votes in the state of California. All of the votes that California has in the electoral college,” Poggio explains.
Although it visually appears that the map indicates a greater number of Republican states, colored in red, the dispute between the presidential candidates is fierce. This is because the number of votes in Electoral College varies from state to state. California, for example, has 54, more than Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina combined.
But then why isn’t California considered a swing state and Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina are?
Lucas Leite analyzes that these regions have the power to “change the game “precisely because voter support can easily fluctuate from one election cycle to the next. And it is this lack of predictability that turns them into true political battlegrounds.
California is traditionally a Democratic state, so it is expected that these votes will be secured by that party’s candidate.
Furthermore, in most states – with the exception of Maine and Nebraska – the winner gets the full number of votes from that region, even if by a small margin.
“The winner takes all means that whoever wins gets everything for each state,” recalls Denilde Holzhacker. In this sense, adds Poggio, to be elected president of the United States a candidate needs to obtain the majority of votes in the Electoral College, that is, it is necessary to have 270 votes — half plus one — the famous “magic number “.
This system means that the election does not depend directly on the national popular vote, but rather on the results of swing states, where the dispute is fierce. This makes winning these states a central strategy, since they can decide the outcome of the presidential election.
In this sense, professor Carlos Gustavo Poggio explains that candidates adapt campaign strategies to the specific trend and profile of that state in comparison to the national campaign.
“In swing states, the tone is to attract undecided voters because in these states many people have not decided who to vote for,” says professor Lucas Leite.
In these regions, candidates’ discourse is generally more moderate and there is a greater allocation of costs and resources, adds Leite.
Projections for the 2024 election
Current analysis shows that four states (Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina) with a total of 53 Electoral College votes have shifted from a Republican leaning to swing. Thus, seven states and one district in Nebraska with 94 Electoral College votes are considered swing states.
According to electoral projections, Trump is expected to win 24 states and one district in Maine, giving him 219 Electoral College votes, 51 short of the 270 needed to win.
Meanwhile, Kamala is expected to win in 19 states plus the District of Columbia, totaling 225 votes, 45 votes less than needed.
For Trump, it is crucial to hold on to the states he won in 2020 and win back Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Kamala must hold on to the “Blue Wall” states to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed.
The projections of the CNN These estimates are based on polls and consultations with advisers and politicians from both parties, reflecting a highly competitive electoral landscape. They refer to the current state of the electoral college, which points to another close presidential election, and are not a prediction of how things will play out in November.
Check out the list of states below:
- Republican Solid : Total 188 Votes in the Electoral College
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11) , Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
- Tend to be republican : Total 31 votes in the Electoral College
Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)
- Pendulum : Total 94 votes in the Electoral College
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)
- Tends to be democratic : Total 50 votes in the Electoral College
Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)
- Solid Democratic : Total 175 Votes in the Electoral College
California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
Tense scenario between Kamala and Trump
The final stretch of the 2024 US presidential campaign begins with a contested scenario in six swing states, according to new polls from CNN conducted in August by SSRS in each region.
US Vice President Kamala Harris has an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.
The two nearly evenly split likely voters in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the latter of which is the state with the most Electoral College votes and is widely seen as an open race.
The results suggest an Electoral College scenario in which Pennsylvania and Georgia are central to each candidate’s path to the White House. President Joe Biden won all six of these states in 2020 (with the exception of North Carolina), winning Georgia by just under 12,000 votes and Arizona by just over 10,000 votes.
Poggio analyzes that Kamala’s entry into the dispute transformed the scenario by the renewed enthusiasm of Democrats. Given that voting in the United States is optional, the renewed incentive has increased the vice president’s advantages. Polls indicate, for example, a gain among younger voters.
“At the beginning of the election, when Joe Biden was still a candidate, Trump was the favorite and he became even more of a favorite after an unusual event, the attack,” recalls Leandro Consentino.
However, he explains that another unexpected event was when Biden dropped out of the race for reelection and the vice president was nominated by the Democratic Party. “Since then, Kamala Harris has been in the lead, including in some swing states,” he adds.
“The photograph is from today, but as we are a few months away from the election (November 5th) we have to be careful when making predictions”, Leandro Consentino highlights.
In this regard, experts agree: still there is no clear leader to win the United States elections.
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This content was originally published in What are swing states and how important are they in the US elections on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
