What are traders awaiting from crypto

Against the backdrop of the introduction of new US trade duties, one of the most popular pools among Polymarket service participants was the forecast whether the US recession will occur in the United States in 2025. The rates on this event were opened at the beginning of the year, then the probability of a decline in the state economy was estimated at 20%. By April 1, it increased to 39%, and April 9 is already 65%. For this event, the participants in the pool delivered more than $ 2 million, reports RBC Crypto.

Polymarket is a forecast market where users make bets on the outcome of various events, buying “yes or no” tokens for cryptocurrency. The price of token reflects the market probability of the event: if “yes” costs $ 0.20, this means that the market estimates the probability of an outcome of 20%. After the event is completed, winning tokens are paid at a rate of $ 1 apiece, and the losers are reset. Users can buy and sell these tokens (on the platform they are called shares – “shares”) in any quantity, without waiting for the end of the event. The price is formed on the basis of demand and supply, and with it the calculated probability of the event is also changing.

Another popular economic forecast is the decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce the key rate. In total, $ 18 million introduced into this pool. Users believe that in May with a probability of 67% of the Fed will decide to leave a bet at the same level and with a probability of 56% will reduce the rate by 25 B.P. In June.

With a probability of 47%, a bitcoin exchange rate in April may drop to $ 70 thousand, participants in the corresponding pool say. The chances that the first cryptocurrency this month will return to $ 90 thousand are estimated at 23%.

The Bitcoin exchange rate at 17:00 Moscow time ranges about $ 76 thousand per week, which has passed from the announcement of new duties by US President Donald Trump, BTC has fallen by 12%, while updating the minimum of November 2024.

On a longer time of time in a betting pool called “What price will Bitcoin reach in 2025?” In addition to the courses below the current, participants are quite highly evaluating the chances of bitcoin to achieve new maximums:

$ 110,000 – 46%;

$ 120 000 – 34%;

$ 130,000 – 28%;

$ 150,000 – 16%;

$ 200,000 – 13%.

The probability that the bitcoin exchange rate will reach $ 1 million this year is 3%, according to the players.

As for Ethereum, the probability of altcoin falls in April up to $ 1200 is estimated on a platform of 36%, the chances of growth up to $ 2000 and a collapse of $ 1000 – 13% for each of these options.

One of the most popular remains pool “whether Trump will create a bitcoin reserve during the first 100 days as a post.” The volume of bets in this pool exceeds $ 15 million, but the probability of an event is now estimated at only 14%. When the pool was launched on November 7, 2024, this estimate was 60%. The first 100 days of Trump on the post expire on April 29.

It is noteworthy that the probability of creating a national bitcoin reserve in the United States until the end of 2025 is estimated above – at 51%. The event on which users have already put almost $ 2.5 million will be considered what happened if the US government will store any number of bitcoins in their reserves at any time of the year, with the exception of confiscated coins.

Polymarket also actively relieve bets on political events. The pool was collecting almost $ 1 million, forecasting the meeting of Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia until June. The probability of this event is now estimated at 14%, while after the launch of these bets in early March, the chances of meeting the leaders of Russia and the United States were estimated at 66%.

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