The probability that the Bitcoin rate could rise to $105 thousand in January is 40%, according to participants in cryptocurrency forecasts on the Polymarket platform. The chances that the first cryptocurrency will fall to $90 thousand are estimated at 70%, to $85 thousand – at 41%, writes RBC Crypto.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around $94 thousand. Over the course of the day it increased by 2%, but over the week it fell by 2.4%. This month, the asset has already risen to $102 thousand and dropped to $91.2 thousand.
As for Ethereum, which is currently trading around $3.3 thousand, bettors believe that the probability of the altcoin reaching $4 thousand in January is 22%, and falling to $3 thousand is 57%. And the chances of ETH reaching $6 thousand are estimated at 1% (its historical maximum is $4878).
Solana (SOL) price on January 10 is around $186. There is a 42% probability that it will drop to $160, according to pool participants. The chances of growth to $250, according to their estimates, are 20%.
On the platform also open pool “Will the US government sell bitcoins before Trump’s inauguration?” Users estimated the probability of this event to be 17%. And the chances that the new US president will create a national bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office are are at 27%. At the beginning of November, they were 60%, according to the participants in this pool.
In the betting category related to memcoins, users thinkthere is a 7% chance that the PEPE Cryptocurrency ETF (PEPE) will launch in 2025. Chances of a Dogecoin ETF Launching This Year are being assessed at 35%.
While betting on cryptocurrency events continues to be popular on Polymarket, the largest volumes of bets are now placed in the sports category. And despite the fact that users from the United States are prohibited from using the platform, the most active pools of predictions for the results of American sporting events, such as NBA matches or the Super Bowl 2025 American football championship, remain.
January 8 crypto exchange Coinbase warned users about receiving a request from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide customer data as part of an ongoing investigation into Polymarket. In 2021, the platform was accused of illegally offering financial products to American customers. During the proceedings, Polymarket has already paid a fine of $1.4 million.
In 2024, the FBI became interested in the cryptocurrency betting platform. Security forces came to search Polymarket CEO Shane Coplan and seized his electronics.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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