What did Erdogan actually gain from Sweden and Finland?

Sweden and Finland finally accepted Turkey’s demands and yesterday, on the first day of the NATO Summit, the signing of a memorandum was achieved by the three countries, which essentially lifts the Turkish veto and paves the way for the accession of the two northern European countries to NATO.

The Turkish media rushed from the first moment to celebrate with headlines saying “Turkey got what it wanted”. In fact, it is characteristic that the festivities continue on Wednesday, as all the Turkish media continue in the same line and talk about “Erdogan’s victory in Madrid”.

The bottom line is that the Turkish president came out victorious, at least at one point. The communication. Domestic headlines have admittedly caused a stir, as in addition to reaping some benefits for Turkey, the only concession it made was to allow NATO enlargement, something the Turkish president would take advantage of in the run-up to the election by saying “we never in NATO enlargement “.

According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Ankara, Helsinki and Stockholm have signed a memorandum addressing concerns expressed by Turkey, including arms exports and the fight against terrorism.

There seems to be “juice” here.

Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 construction program, as well as the embargo on the upgrade of F-16 aircraft owned by Ankara, two Washington decisions that came as a result of the supply of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft guns, had a serious diplomatic and not only costs for organ authority.

In this matter, it remains to be seen from the meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Turkish counterpart (Wednesday at 18:45 Greek time), whether there will be collateral exchanges from the US for the Turkish change of attitude, beyond the the same meeting, which can be considered a reward bonus, and which will also be used by Erdogan in the run-up to the elections.

It is clearer that with the lifting of the arms embargo on Ankara, Erdogan can now integrate the Swedish defense industry into his potential partners for both the supply of coveted advanced aircraft and the sale of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, as well as for possible collaborations for the purchase by Turkey of components for the domestic programs of construction of tanks, ships and recently submarines.

“Terrorism”

The “fight against terrorism” is another issue that Turkey is celebrating.

First of all, the fact that the movement of Imam Fethullah Gulen was registered as a dangerous organization, against which measures are being taken, in an official NATO document, opens the way for the Turkish president to invoke the fact that everyone calls the Gulen terrorists terrorists and the pogrom against them inside and outside the borders and may in the future ask NATO members to accept this designation in its entirety.

According to the document, Sweden and Finland pledged to cooperate fully with Turkey in the fight against the PKK and its “related” organizations, in solidarity with Turkey in the fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, and in non-support of the Syrians. PYD / YPG Kurds. This concerns Turkey’s agenda in Syria and Iraq. The fact that (at least in words) the two northern European countries will appear to be assisting Erdogan in the battle to “break” the Kurdish front by uniting on its southern and eastern borders is a communication victory for the “fanatical” Erdogan.

It is known that the Kurds have changed “troparion”. Although they sought armed conflict within borders, for several years they have appeared to support federalism (federalization), trying to gain specific freedoms. Outside the borders, the Kurds in Syria and Iraq have sought to establish “purely Kurdish areas” adjacent to Turkey.

The concessions of Sweden and Finland on this issue give Turkey the opportunity to be added as a major headache, which will continue to circumvent the Interpol system by demanding the extradition of Kurds and non-Kurds, who are associated with the Kurdish armed groups (or their which Ankara will link to them) in order to weaken the forces abroad.

This looks like a good piece of paper that shows that he may not finally carry out the new invasion of Syria, which he has so many times declared to be preparing. Russia (implicitly) does not explicitly forbid a new Turkish intervention in Syria, thus wanting to offer it territory and influence in the region, something the United States cannot offer.

Washington, for its part, will try to offset this paper, and Erdogan knows this. In the upcoming meeting with Biden, he will try to get something (F-16; some concession to Syria?) So that he can show once again within the borders that “he gets what he wants”, while in fact he will have satisfy the US and partly itself.

The main benefit of the President of Turkey is the fact that inside his country he will be able to appear in all election speeches as the man who has made his country not just an important member of NATO, but one of the top, as the rhetoric “whatever the US wants, we also have a say in the final decision”, has already begun to appear in the Turkish media.

The bottom line is that the excitement surrounding “Erdogan’s victory in Madrid” is far greater than it should be. In essence, it played a game of delays with the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and gained very little that could be exploited directly beyond communication, which is its biggest interest right now.

Sweden’s defense industry may be “stingy” about Turkey’s shattered finances at the moment, but it is undeniable that it has opened a market for the sale of drones to Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar. Well, both northern European countries could leave their terrorism commitments on paper and never give any substantive help on the Kurdish issue.

Or at least keep the Kurdish community flourishing within their borders, but make it quieter. Let us not forget that Turkey is also committed to the fight against terrorism and, despite the fact that the evidence of Islamic State financiers from its territory is overwhelming, it continues to fight international terrorists.

Sweden and Finland could just do the same.

Petros Kranias