What do the polls in Serbia and Hungary mean?

Two of Europe’s most dominant leaders have vowed to retain power in an election that has focused on their close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin following his invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.

Polls suggest Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is well on his way to winning a fourth consecutive term in Sunday’s vote, a race that is unusually narrow following the formation of a six-party opposition coalition.

In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic is expected to have an easier path to victory, although he is unlikely to repeat his landslide two years ago.

The war in Ukraine has overshadowed the vote and the two leaders have presented themselves as defenders of the nation. Opponents have sought to frame the election as a choice between promoting integration with Western Europe or risking political and economic isolation.

If they prevail, both Orban and Vucic will face similar balances as Europe opposes Russia. Hungary has reconciled with Putin and China, while at the same time harassing the other members of the European Union on everything from media control and immigration to LGBTQ rights and customer relations. Vuτςiτς struggled to reconcile Serbia’s traditionally close relationship with Russia with the country’s ambition to join the EU.

With government-backed incumbents in the media, both campaigns have turned to war, as countries feel the economic impact of energy security and inflation and the political implications of Putin’s invasion.

Orban, 58, who returned to power in 2010 and has shaped Hungary into what he calls a “free democracy”, quickly backed the initial round of EU sanctions against Russia and opened the door to Ukrainian refugees. He reacted, however, to allowing Hungary to become an arms pipeline and to stop the flow of Russian oil and gas.

After Orban promised not to let Hungary “become a sacrificial pawn in someone else’s war”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky singled him out in a speech at the EU leaders’ summit on March 24, saying it was time to choose. which side is it on.

For Vucic, 52, the conflict has helped divert the opposition’s attention to allegations of corruption in Serbia and environmental issues that have been central to its offensive following a wave of anti-pollution protests last year. The president of Serbia condemned the invasion, but avoided joining the Russian sanctions. His party replaced its original campaign slogan emphasizing economic achievements with “Peace. Security. Vucic”.

“Both are playing the role of people’s psychological desire to be predictable in times of uncertainty, presenting themselves as guardians of stability in turbulent times,” said Vuk Vuksanovic, a researcher at the Belgrade Center for Political Security. “The war in Ukraine has made the life of the Serbian opposition even more difficult.”

Recent polls suggest the message is working. Orban, the longest-serving head of the EU government, extended his narrow lead over opposition candidate Peter Markey-Zee in the aftermath of the war. However, a reversal cannot be ruled out due to the “huge uncertainty” of the polls since the war overthrew the election campaign, according to Tibor Zavecz, head of the Budapest polling company Zavecz Research.

A victory for the opposition will herald a turbulent period for Hungary. Markey-Zay has vowed to imprison officials for bribery and overthrow Orban’s power. Orban, however, has placed his loyalists at the helm of key state institutions in an effort to maintain his influence regardless of the outcome of the election. In the event of his election, Markey-Zei has also pledged to work quickly to unblock billion-euro EU funding that has been delayed due to corruption concerns.

According to most polls, Orban’s Fidesz party leads by about five percentage points. This would translate into several parliamentary seats to form a government, although it would not be enough to repeat the overwhelming majority that allowed Orban to change the constitution and electoral law in his favor. Voting in Hungary starts at 6 am local time and ends at 7 pm, while unofficial results are expected late at night.
Orban’s victory, the fifth since he became prime minister in 1998, will reflect control of his narrative and reform of the electoral system, according to Mujtaba Rahman, chief executive of Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory firm. “This will leave Brussels with the task of tackling the stray they have so far failed to tame,” he said on Twitter.

Multiple elections are taking place in Serbia after Vucic, who has dominated the politics of the largest former Yugoslav republic for a decade, pushed for early parliamentary elections more than two years ahead of schedule. The vote will take place in parallel with the presidential race, which ends in May, as well as a local vote on who will run Belgrade.

Unlike Hungary, Vuτςiτς benefits from a fragmented opposition. Eight candidates are vying for the presidency, while 19 parties and alliances are vying for seats.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)