What does the uprising in Kazakhstan mean because of fuel prices?

By Costas Raptis

Are the protesters’ demands justified? Yes. Is the president of the country in control of the situation? Probably yes. Is there, as he complains, outside motivation? One never knows – but we are always talking about the post-Soviet space of so many “colorful revolutions”.

In any case, Kazakhstan has been in turmoil since January 2, when protests erupted in the oil-producing southwestern province of Mangistau over the dramatic rise in the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is used primarily by the Central Asian country.

Kazakhstan is offering its own special version of the international energy crisis, as LPG prices doubled in just a few days, after transferring 100% of online sales from January 1, as part of a three-year gradual transition. At the same time, the price ceiling that had made LPG popular was removed, but also had led the producers to sell below cost.

Within two days the protests spread to many cities and began to take place violently (with 95 injured by the police and 200 arrests), while the slogans of the protesters soon turned against the government as a whole, accused of the prevailing corruption and unemployment. .

New government

To deal with the crisis, Kazakh President Kasim-Zomart Tokayev resorted to a combination of whip and carrot. It imposed a two-week state of emergency in Almaty, the country’s largest city and former capital, as well as in Mangistau province, with a night-time curfew and curfew inside and outside the city center, and on Wednesday accepted the resignation of the prime minister’s government. Askar Mamin, who as her last action decided to impose a ceiling on the price of fuel at 50 tenge per liter (about $ 0.11), ie half of the current market price.

Until the new government is formed, the current ministers will remain in office temporarily under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov.

However, at least in the capital of Mangstau, Aktau, about 6,000 protesters remain in the main square as well as in the neighboring town of Zanaozen. For those who took to the streets, the fall of the government is not enough, but new elections are needed to replace the current parliament, which has virtually no opposition.

The slogan “Shal Ket!” Is also characteristic. (“Down with the Old Man!”), Which was coined to mobilize feminist activists in Almaty in 2014 and apparently refers to the country’s “First President” Nursultan Nazarbayev. “Head of state since 1990, even before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Nazarbayev staged a controlled succession in 2019 (in the midst of and then protests), handing it over to Tokayev, who was legitimized by early elections, while retaining his title.” First President “maintaining an important role – and immunity. At the same time, the capital Astana was renamed in his honor Nursultan.

Significance

The importance of Kazakhstan can not be underestimated. The former Soviet republic of 18.8 million (two-thirds of Muslim Turks are Kazakhs and one-fifth of Russians) is the ninth largest country in the world and one of the most sparsely populated, dominating Central Asia.

For obvious geographical and economic reasons, none of the Eurasian integration plans is meant without Kazakhstan’s involvement, especially the “New Silk Road.” Any destabilization of this country, let alone its accession by the West, would be a nightmare for Moscow and Beijing, which are certainly watching closely these days.