What does the “Wagner group” do without Prigozhin?

How exactly did the leaders of the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner die, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin in the plane crash, while he was on his way from Moscow to St. Petersburg? Just a few days later there is still no clear information on what exactly happened, but almost no one is convinced that it was indeed an … accident. And this, despite the fact that the Kremlin, through the mouth of the representative Dmitry Peskovcalled any speculation about an official mandate “false.”

As stated by Deutsche Wellefor Belarus, a close ally of Russia, the question is of course now: What will happen to those mercenaries who were exiled there after the failed mutiny against the leadership of the Russian army at the end of June; It’s about 4,000 to 5,000 armed soldiersnotorious for their brutal means, who were to establish themselves in Belarus as “educators”.

Part of them may remain in Belarus…

The story of Prigozhin’s private army is over, argues Alexander Friedman, a historian specializing in Eastern Europe at the University of Düsseldorf. “Wagner’s mercenaries, however, remain in Africa and Belarus.” The unit will still exist, the German historian believes, “possibly under the same name. However, it will now be under the Russian Ministry of Defense.”

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, would like to keep some of the fighters under his own authority, Friedman says. “His money would be enough for up to 3,000 mercenaries, but Moscow has the final say.” As he points out, a complete withdrawal of the Wagner group troops from Belarus would not be in Russia’s interest, as this would lead to a de-escalation on the borders with Poland and Lithuania, where the mercenaries are camped and are perceived as a threat by neighboring countries of the EU. However, according to Friedman, much of the troops may be sent to Russia or Africa.

Alexander Klaskovsky, an analyst for the independent Belarusian media program Posirk, sees the situation differently. According to him, Lukashenko is not interested in Wagner’s troops in Belarus. The mercenaries are now leaderless and the group’s future remains in doubt. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko are interested in keeping the Wagner team as small as possible.

In addition, there is also the possibility that the EU and NATO will close the border with Belarus. The fact that relations with neighboring European countries have deteriorated dramatically is a negative development for Lukashenko, says Klaskovsky. Therefore he considers that the Belarusian leader will try to get rid of the Wagner group.

…to provoke the EU

“The omens are not good for the Wagner team”, says Valery Zakashol, a supporter of exiled politician Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. He also believes that some of the mercenaries may remain in Belarus. And he explains: “Because Russia wants to provoke at the borders of the EU and sabotage Ukraine”. However, the issue of funding is perhaps the most important.

“Exile” to Belarus was only a temporary solution to the “problem of the leadership of the Wagner group”, summarizes Grigori Nizhikov, from the Finnish Institute of International Relations, as there was no strategic objective for the troops to remain in Belarus. Lukashenko has no ability to lead troops in Prigozhin’s place and has no ambition to do so, Nizhkov says, predicting that by the end of the year, Wagner’s troops will have left the country.

Something that Alexander Klaskovsky is also convinced of: “These people have opposed Putin in the past. He doesn’t trust them.” Therefore, they will more or less split up: “Some will go back to politics, some will find themselves in Africa.”