Kamala Harris and Donald Trump fight for just 538 Electoral College votes in this Tuesday’s presidential election (5). A draw scenario is more than possible.
In the history of the United States, it is surprising that there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
This tie was the result of a failure of coordination by the Democratic-Republicans, but it led to the country’s first “contingent election”, decided in the House of Representatives.
Can a draw really happen this year?
Yes . Although a draw is not a likely result, it is something to be prepared for.
Here is a plausible scenario for the 2024 election:
- If Kamala wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there is a tie, 269-269.
Unlike all other states, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. These individual, competitive electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska become extremely consequential in scenarios of a potential tie.
What happens if there is a tie?
If there is a 269-269 tie, or if a third party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and prevents a candidate from achieving an Electoral College majority of 270 votes the next step is called “contingent election “.
Under the 12th Amendment, enacted after the tied election of 1800, if no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
When would a “contingent election” take place?
According to an analysis by the Congressional Research Service, a contingent election would take place on January 6, immediately after members of Congress met to count the electoral votes and determined that no candidate had a majority.
There is a lot of information from the CRS report, although it dates back to 2017, it is still a valuable resource.
How would the process work?
The nation would be clearly divided. Lawmakers could be torn between supporting their preferred candidate and the one their state’s voters prefer.
In a contingent election, the House selects the president and the Senate selects the vice president. House members can only choose from the top three in the Electoral College for president, and senators can choose from the top two for vice president.
Kennedy would likely need to win electoral votes—winning a state or a congressional district in Nebraska or Maine—to be an option in a contingent election. There’s not much chance of that happening at the moment.
Instead of voting individually, each state delegation in the House would have one vote, although it is not clear how state delegations select their preferred candidate. A simple majority, 26 votes from the state delegation, would name the new president.
If state House delegations did not select a president by Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, the new vice president selected by the Senate would become president pro tem. It is possible for the Senate to select a vice president when the House is deadlocked, because in the Senate each senator would have one vote.
If the Senate had not selected a vice president by January 20, the presidential succession plan in the 20th Amendment goes into effect temporarily.
First in line after the vice president is the Speaker of the House, currently Mike Johnson, although it could be a different Republican or a Democrat if Democrats win the House majority in November.
Does either side have an advantage?
If the Electoral College already benefits smaller and more rural states, the contingent electoral process – in which each state, regardless of population, has an equal vote – gives them a big advantage.
California and Texas have the same say as Delaware and Wyoming in a contingent election. Additionally, Washington, D.C., which gets three Electoral College votes, would be cut out of the contingent election.
There is nothing that requires state delegations to honor their state’s vote winner. And in closely divided states, results in single seats, perhaps determined by gerrymandered congressional maps, can influence a delegation’s vote.
Going into the 2024 election, Republican lawmakers held majorities in 26 states, compared to Democrats, who held majorities in 22, with ties in Minnesota and North Carolina.
Republicans in North Carolina changed the state’s congressional map, however, and it is likely to have a Republican-majority congressional delegation in January. Republicans will likely maintain their advantage next year, especially if voters are so divided that they deliver a national tie at the top of the ticket.
In Arizona, for example, who’s to say that a potential majority of Republican members of Congress would vote for the Democratic candidate even if Kamala won a narrow victory there?
Would the Democratic member of Congress from Alaska, assuming he wins re-election, vote Democrat for president, even though his state will likely go to Trump in November?
Why does this tiebreaker system exist?
In fact, it’s supposed to be an improvement. The way the Electoral College was first convened, voters voted for two candidates. Whoever got the most votes was president and whoever got the second most votes was vice president.
At the time when political parties were forming—Federalists and Democratic-Republicans in the 1800s—voters needed to coordinate to vote more for their presidential choice than their vice presidential choice.
In the election of 1800, a rematch of 1796, Jefferson’s Democratic-Republicans defeated incumbent president and Federalist John Adams.
But the Democratic-Republicans were poorly coordinated and voted in equal numbers for their presidential choice, Jefferson, and his running mate, Burr.
When the initial version of the contingent election arrived, the Federalists, who still controlled the House at that time, supported Burr. Despite the intervention of Alexander Hamilton, a famous Federalist, it took 36 rounds of voting to finally elect Jefferson.
In 1804, the 12th Amendment was being ratified.
Has there been a contingent election in the years since the tied election of 1800?
Yes. In 1824, several candidates received votes in the Electoral College, but none of them received a majority, triggering a contingent election.
Surprisingly, from today’s perspective, all of the candidates who won Electoral College votes that year were from the same Democratic-Republican political party, although they were divided into regional groups.
Andrew Jackson won 40% of the popular vote and won the majority of Electoral College votes with 99 of the 131 needed for victory. But the House ended up choosing his main rival, John Quincy Adams, whose father lost the 1800 election.
Jackson would get his revenge with a victory four years later, and John Quincy Adams would complete his career as the only former president to be elected to Congress, the body that made him president.
Another contingent election occurred with the 1836 race, but only for vice president.
Virginia voters disliked Robert M. Johnson, the running mate of election winner Martin Van Buren, and withheld their votes for him in the Electoral College. The Senate later elevated Johnson to the vice presidency in a contingent election.
What about the disputed election of 1876?
In 1876, when there was a disputed result, the contingent election system was ignored.
That year, the issue was not that no one person won a majority in the Electoral College, but rather that three Southern states—Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina—sent multiple slates of electoral votes to Washington, D.C., after the state elections were held. disputed. And in Oregon, there was a dispute over an elector.
Congress created a special bipartisan commission, with one more Republican than Democrats, to determine which candidate should win the 20 disputed electoral votes. They ended up giving the votes to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, although Democrat Samuel Tilden won more popular votes.
CNN Brasil provides super live coverage
CNN Brasil is providing super coverage of the dispute between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the White House in the American elections, which take place this Tuesday, November 5th.
In direct connection with the American headquarters of CNNand interpreters on standby for translation 24 hours a day, content produced in the United States will be covered by the multiplatform that makes up the ecosystem of CNN Brazil.
The 24-hour live marathon begins this Monday (4), at 11pm, with the special program “América Decide”, and will continue uninterruptedly until the results of the polls are announced.
This content was originally published on What happens if there is a tie in the US presidential election? on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
