What signs does the US look out for that could indicate a Russian invasion of Ukraine

It could be a cyber attack targeting Ukraine’s power grid. Or the movement of Russian battalions and tanks along the border and into the firing range. Or, perhaps, even a long-range missile strike.

All are potential signs that US and European officials are closely monitoring, which could reveal that President Vladimir Putin is pushing ahead with an invasion of Ukraine.

With more than 100,000 Russian troops massed along the Ukrainian border – a number that continues to grow – military and intelligence officials are examining the latest tactical maneuvers to try to anticipate when Moscow might shift from threatening an invasion to launching one.

US officials say they are closely monitoring cyber intrusions such as the attack that hit Ukraine’s government last month. They are watching not just Russian troops piling up on the border, but where they are positioned, and they are keeping an eye on what Russia is doing with its equipment, such as tanks, that would be critical to any ground invasion.

At the same time, current and former government officials tell the CNN that, ultimately, there may not be a clear hint for an attack on Ukraine. Like the rumble of an earthquake, there can be little or no early warning of an invasion before it’s already underway, officials say.

“If you look at the low-cost options, all of which are immediately executable with little to no warning with forces that are already deployed – things like a punitive strike or strike in the east, a breakout from the south, a strike from the north – these forces are already in position and in the right number with the right capability,” a Western intelligence official told CNN.

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told CNN that the US may not see the start of an invasion. “If he shoots Kiev or any other big city, then you know it’s a real deal,” Clapper said.

The assessment helps explain why President Joe Biden and senior US officials have warned that a Russian invasion is imminent – ​​an explanation that has angered Ukrainian officials – because the Kremlin may need very little time before an attack is launched.

Invasion could happen ‘any day now’

While the White House said it would no longer call a Russian invasion “imminent,” a government official said the assessment that an attack could happen “at any moment” remains valid as the Russians have added logistics and support to their efforts. border forces, as well as additional offensive and defensive weapons.

Russian officials have repeatedly denied that they are preparing to invade Ukraine, accusing the West of being responsible for escalating tensions in the country.

The White House on Wednesday approved a plan presented by the Pentagon for the nearly 2,000 US troops in Poland to help Americans who may try to evacuate Ukraine if Russia invades, according to two US officials familiar with the matter.

US forces are currently not authorized to enter Ukraine if war breaks out, and there are no plans for them to conduct an evacuation like the US operation in Afghanistan last year, officials stressed.

Biden also suggested that Americans should leave Ukraine now, and State Department officials said they might not be in a position to help Americans still in the country if Russia invades.

Officials say there is a distinction between different potential scenarios, whether Russia attacks Ukraine in a targeted manner or whether the Kremlin is preparing for a full-scale invasion of the country to try to overthrow the government in Kiev. In the latter case, the Russians would need more troops along the border, officials say, and satellite imagery would capture the continuous buildup the West has observed for months.

“I don’t think the math is as simple as saying, there’s a magic number of (battalion tactical groups),” the Western official said. “It’s just generally speaking, more than what we see now.”

But officials warned that Putin could also start using long-range artillery to attack Ukraine, where ground forces would not need to be within range.

Still, one of the main things the US is watching is when significant numbers of Russian forces leave their training areas close to the border, and move within the firing range of their targets, which are specific ground positions, a US official said. government.

Another sign that US officials are monitoring is the movement of Russian tanks. One sign that the Russian military might be preparing for an invasion is if they start moving tanks across the border, or turning them on or off, the official said, because if they sit there and don’t move for a few days , the oil could freeze.

If they’re turning it on and off, it prevents that from happening – meaning the tanks would be ready to go quickly. So far, the official said, the tanks are just sitting there, according to commercial satellite imagery.

Weather in Ukraine could also play a role, with the assessment being that cooler temperatures – and frozen terrain – would facilitate a Russian incursion.

On alert for cyber attacks

US and Ukrainian officials say there is high expectation that any Russian invasion could be carried out in conjunction with an offensive cyber aggression against Ukraine.

Victor Zhora, a Ukrainian official who investigated the January cyberattack on Ukrainian government websites, said last month that “there is no doubt that (any Russian invasion) can be supported by cyber aggression – or at least they will remain active in cyberspace.” ”.

U.S. officials are closely watching any signs of cyberattacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure and are in contact with their Ukrainian counterparts on the matter, a U.S. official told CNN. One concern is that Russia could use its hacking prowess to try to undermine public trust in the Ukrainian government.

“Can cyber be used to suggest that the Ukrainian government is inept?” said the US official.

Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, alleged Russian hackers have disrupted critical Ukrainian infrastructure on multiple occasions, including cutting power to parts of the country in 2015 and 2016.

“Cyber ​​is an ideal tool for Russia to use before an invasion,” said John Hultquist, vice president of intelligence analysis at cybersecurity firm Mandiant, who closely follows the Russian hacking group accused of the 2015 and 2015 outages. 2016.

“You can use (cyber operations) to be aggressive, to signal (intent) and potentially erode your adversary’s influence before bullets fly or without needing to escalate the situation to war.”

Officials say Russia is already making use of so-called hybrid warfare techniques — unconventional tactics like cyberattacks, information warfare and the famous “little green men” Russia relied on in the run-up to its 2014 attack on Crimea — making it difficult to identify any incident as a definite sign that Moscow is preparing to escalate.

The State Department said last week that Russia was prepared to fabricate “a pretext for an invasion” through a false flag video.

The Western official noted that Ukraine was hit by a cyber operation last month that did not precede a conventional Russian attack.

“This is one of the most difficult questions to answer because the base level of activity is so high focused on Ukraine – and here I mean hybrid and cyber,” the official said. “A one-off event may not be the indicator that we are looking for a campaign to start.”

Source: CNN Brasil

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