What to expect from Bitcoin in June

Bitcoin closed May with an increase of 11%. In the first days of summer, the price of the first cryptocurrency is in the range of $67–71 thousand.

Experts told “RBC-Crypto” about the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin rate in the first month of summer.

In June, the main factors that will influence the cryptocurrency rate will be macroeconomic data for the United States, comments cryptocurrency market analyst Viktor Pershikov. First of all, these are data on the labor market, inflation, the US Federal Reserve meeting and the rate decision, as well as data on GDP.

If they indicate a weakening of price pressure, as well as a slowdown in the economy, then risky assets will receive additional support, the analyst explains. This is due to the fact that investors are actively looking for confirmation of their expectations of the first rate cut in September. At the same time, rising inflation and falling unemployment will not allow crypto assets to rise in price significantly and will leave them in their current ranges for some time.

The main factor influencing the situation in the crypto market remains inflation in the United States, agrees TerraCrypto founder Nikita Vassev. The key level that market participants are watching is 3.3%. If inflation drops below this level, we can talk about positive dynamics in the American economy and a possible imminent reduction in the key rate, which investors are waiting for. The next release of US consumer price data is scheduled for June 12.

In April, consumer price growth was 3.4%; Thus, a decrease in inflation over the month by 0.1 percentage points. looks like a fairly realistic goal. But if this does not happen, investor disappointment could lead to an outflow of capital from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a sell-off, leading to a decline in the price.

What to expect from the course

From a technical point of view, the Bitcoin price chart clearly shows resistance on the daily timeframe. Now there is a tightening towards the trend line and sales are becoming weaker, comments Andrey Podolyan, senior analyst at the Cryptorg trading platform.

The return of the Bitcoin price to the range formed since March will increase the likelihood of a correction, the analyst predicts. While steady growth above $76 thousand will open the way for it to reach the level of $100 thousand already this year (approximately in the fourth quarter). To do this, according to Pershikov, the fundamental situation in the United States should be conducive to easing monetary policy (MCP), and inflows into crypto funds should increase multiple times compared to the volumes of the past two months. Against this background, the likelihood of reaching such a significant mark as $100 thousand for one bitcoin will increase significantly.

Unless some significant event occurs, Bitcoin will most likely continue to fluctuate in the range of $68–71 thousand in June, Vassev believes. The rise in the price of cryptocurrency may be facilitated by a sharp decrease in inflation rates in the United States.

At the same time, the support level in the range of $63–65 thousand is unlikely to allow Bitcoin to go lower, Vassev adds. The general trend for cryptocurrencies remains positive in the medium term, the expert clarifies. Market participants hope that the key rate will begin to be reduced in the fall, and are also closely monitoring the progress of the presidential race in the United States.