What to expect from Bitcoin this week?

Specialist RBC Krito analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate for the next seven days.

“Buyers are trembling”

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov

Key points of the week:

• Continued regulatory pressure on crypto exchanges, in particular an investigation into Binance’s activities in Brazil.
• Negative market reaction to rising inflation in the United States and the strengthening of the dollar.
• Declining risk appetite amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.
• The technical picture is generally on the side of the bulls, despite the weekly decline.
• Expectations that the current wave of growth will end soon and a correction will begin.

Bitcoin has shown volatile dynamics this week, reacting to various factors, both positive and negative.

On Monday, October 9, the price dropped by 1.17% to $27,590. The main impact on the market was the increase in geopolitical risks amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which led to investors exiting risky assets, including Bitcoin. In addition, since the beginning of the Asian session, there has been an increased demand for the dollar as a protective asset.

On Tuesday, October 10, Bitcoin continued to decline by 0.72% to $27,390. It was negatively affected by news from the crypto industry itself. Namely, a committee of the Brazilian Congress recommended that local regulators begin an investigation and possible prosecution of the top management of the Binance crypto exchange for violating local laws and regulations. This has increased pressure from regulators around the world on the largest crypto exchanges. Due to the growth of regulatory risks, buyer activity has dropped noticeably, which caused the fall of Bitcoin.

On October 11, Bitcoin continued to decline against the US dollar – the price dropped by 1.88% to $26,875. At the American session, quotes dropped to $26,538. The crypto market continued to ignore the growth of stock indices and the weakening of the dollar on Forex, reacting to the negativity within the industry.

On Thursday, October 12, the smooth decline continued by another 0.43% to $26,759. Low liquidity remained in the market, pressure was now exerted by the strengthening of the dollar, the decline of the S&P 500 index and the exit of investors from risky assets.

On Friday, October 13, the price increased slightly – by 0.38% to $26,862. In the morning, there was growth on the positive side of stock indices, but then, due to the worsening situation in the Middle East and Israel’s preparation for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, investors again began get rid of risky assets.

Bitcoin has lost 3.7% since Monday, indicating continued pressure on the market. The situation remains uncertain. According to CME Group, with a high degree of probability, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will not raise the key rate following the results of the upcoming meeting on November 1. However, this fact does not yet provide much support for digital assets due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

The BTC/USDt pair corrected by 50% to rise from $24,901 to $28,580. According to BitRiver, according to technical analysis, the advantage remains on the side of buyers, but given the continued pressure from geopolitical risks, a strengthening dollar, a decline in the S&P 500, as well as ongoing repression of crypto exchanges from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), buyers are trembling due to fears of a return to $26,600.

According to my calculations, the growth phase will last until November 9, so I continue to wait for the price to recover to the intermediate resistance of $28,500 with a subsequent advance to the psychological level of $30 thousand. Taking into account the risks from geopolitics, regulatory actions and dollar dynamics, in the coming days sellers are able to expand the correction to $26 thousand