Specialists RBC Crypto Analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“Fatigue from declarative statements”
Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
The outgoing week in the cryptocurrency market was under the sign of consolidation after a significant March collapse. Bitcoin continued to bargain in the established side range of $ 81134 – $ 87453, demonstrating volatility against the background of the meeting of the US Fermedal Reserve (Fed), the speeches of its head Jerome Powell and public statements by US President Donald Trump. Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has risen in price by 1.94%, to $ 84189, Ethereum – by 5.41%, to $ 1989.
March 17, on Monday, the BTC rate to USDT increased by 1.74%, to $ 84,019. During the American session, the price increased to $ 84756 amid the growth of stock indices. S&P500 added 0.63%, reaching 5674.36 points. Market participants have positively reacted to the data on retail sales in the United States, which turned out to be better than expectations, which reduced fears regarding the state of consumer expenses. Additionally, the market was supported by Bloomberg news that the new US trade representative Jameson Grire plans a more structured approach to the introduction of mutual tariffs scheduled for April 2.
On Tuesday, the BTC/USDT steam decreased by 1.54%to $ 82715. Bitcoin continued consolidation in the range. Investors took a waiting position before the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates and the performance of the head of the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group, the probability of maintaining a rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% was estimated at 99%. The market showed particular interest in Powell’s press conference, where comments were expected about the current state of the US economy, the risks of recession and trade wars.
On March 19, Bitcoin increased by 4.99%, to $ 86845. The growth began with the Asian session and accelerated after Powell’s performance, with a maximum of $ 87453. The Fed, as expected, retained interest rates unchanged. The regulator noted that the US economy continues to expand at a good pace, although inflation remains slightly increased. In the updated FRS forecast, she lowered expectations for US GDP growth by 2025 to 1.7% from 2.1%, which reflects the influence of Trump’s trade policy. Nevertheless, about two reducations of bets in the current year were stored in forecasts. The futures market shows a 70% probability of reducing the rate by 25 basic points in June.
An additional impetus for the growth of cryptocurrencies was given the news about the upcoming speech by President Donald Trump at a summit on digital assets in New York (DAS)-the first case when the current US president takes part in a crypto conference.
March 20, on Thursday, the BTC/USDT pair decreased by 3.02%, to $ 84223. Before Trump’s performance at the BlockWorks Digital Asset Summit summit, Bitcoin confidently held on about $ 86,000, reaching a peak of $ 86532. However, the president’s speech did not live up to the expectations of investors, despite the high -profile promises of the development of the crypto industry. By the end of the auction, the market recorded negative dynamics, which emphasized the fatigue of the crypto community from declarative statements.
Trump announced a number of initiatives: conducting a summit on digital assets in the White House, the formation of a strategic stock of bitcoins, the cancellation of the Chokpunt 2.0 operation and work on the legislation on stablecoins. However, the vague of plans and the lack of specific terms caused skepticism among market participants. Professional investors begin to perceive Trump’s statements as populist rhetoric, and not real steps to the transformation of the industry.
On Friday, March 21, BTC/USDT decreased by 0.16%to $ 84088. During the European session, the price fell to $ 83175, but recovered against the background of the growth of stock indices. S&P500 and Dow Jones showed indecision in the absence of significant economic data. Additional pressure on the market had a large -scale expiration of optional contracts worth more than $ 4.7 trillion, which traditionally added nervousness.
A separate problem for investors was the constantly changing rhetoric of President Trump regarding tariff policy. On Friday morning, he again mentioned a possible “flexibility” regarding the tariff package planned for the introduction on April 2. Trump’s change has already tired the market participants, since constant fluctuations between the escalation and de -escalation of trade wars create uncertainty.
Against this background, the Fed took a calm position, preferring not to respond to recent jumps in inflationary indicators. Jerome Powell, along with FOMC, continues to adhere to the course to reduce interest rates by another 50 basic points before the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of reducing the rate at the June meeting is estimated at almost 80%.
On Saturday, March 22, BTC/USDT was traded at $ 84221. The overall picture for recovery remains positive, although there are not enough additional positive factors. Cyclic analysis also indicates growth potential. Crypto-investors continue to be in thought due to the frequent change of Trump rhetoric, which, being a good newcomaker, supports high volatility in the markets, but does not offer specifics regarding cryptocurrencies-only the slogans about the superiority of the United States in this area.
Bitcoin continues to be in a weekly side trend. According to Bitriver, the nearest goals for this week are $ 90,500 and $ 91800. The control level of support is $ 82550. In case of breaking it, buyers can quickly be at $ 79,000. An important level for changing the mood of investors remains a mark of $ 91800 – the closure of a week or a month above can be a signal for those who are still outside the market.
Expected events at the week from 24 to 30 March, 2025:
March 24: the publication of business activity indices in the production sector and the US service sector, which are key indicators of the state of economics.
March 26: Data in the United States for orders for long -term goods for February, which will give an idea of the state of the production sector.
March 27: Publishing data on US GDP for the fourth quarter (growth is expected by 2.3%), the basic price index of personal consumption costs and the number of primary applications for unemployment benefits.
March 28: Additional data on the price index of personal consumption expenses in the United States, as well as indices of consumer inflation expectations and the mood of consumers from the University of Michigan.
“There are trading risks”
The head of Tehnobit Alexander Revived
The past week was quite calm from the point of view of fluctuations in the course for crypto. Bitcoin opened a week just below $ 84,000 and completes it just above this mark. The amplitude of the oscillations reached $ 6000 – from a decrease to $ 81380 in the middle of the week to a sharp jerk of $ 87,500 by Friday.
Ethereum has also grown slightly from the end of the week, like bitcoin, showing a decrease in the middle of the period and rising in price to the weekend.
The main event of the past week was the decision of the US Federal Reserve to maintain the key bet at the same level. This was the expected decision. It was such a step that most market participants expected, which in general was reflected in the course of trading. Although in the moment the regulator’s refusal to soften the monetary policy and put pressure on the market, but within a couple of days of cryptorrights he lived this blow and managed to recover to the previous level, showing a weak growth in terms of assets. In general, the macroeconomic situation is tense, but not excessively frightening: the Fed’s rhetoric remains quite positive, inflation is moderate, but trade risks remain.
This week, serious changes in the course are not expected. The market remains under the rule of the bears. The fear and greed index is in the zone of fear and does not exceed 30 points. Oil into the fire of fear is added to the fear of investors before the consequences of introducing increased duties on the import of goods from Canada, China and Mexico and response measures from Canada and EU for goods and services produced in the USA. The market participants fear that these steps in the short term will lead to a new acceleration of inflation in the American economy, which will not allow the US Federal Reserve to reduce the rate of the pace that were previously expected – namely two reduction in 2025.
Investors prefer to transfer capital to the most stable protective assets. The price of gold updates maximums over the past weeks. Risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, on the contrary, observe the outflow of capital.
This week, Bitcoin is unlikely to be able to overcome the resistance of the bears and will continue to bargain in the above mentioned price amplitude from $ 81,000 to $ 87,000. In the case of sharply positive news, local jumps are possible by $ 90,000 with attempts to gain a foothold above this mark. But it is unlikely that consolidation is possible in the next 7 days. A less optimistic scenario with price departure is closer to $ 81,000-$ 82,000 in the case of signals about the growth of consumer ones due to risks of trade confrontation.
Ethereum dynamics remains weak and does not give signs of recovery. To return ETH, at least $ 3,000, more targeted growth drivers are needed than an improvement in the macroeconomic background. Other altcoins will most likely also demonstrate the lateral movement, following bitcoin.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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