Specialist RBC Crypto I analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“The market lacks new drivers”
Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
The week from April 28 to May 3 turned out to be volatile: Bitcoin fluctuated in the range of $ 92,800 – $ 97,895 and completed the period in the region of $ 96,000, adding 2.37%. In the early days, the BTC three times unsuccessfully tested the resistance of $ 95,500, fixed near it on April 28. Support $ 92,800 was confirmed the next day.
On April 30, the rate decreased to $ 94 172, playing out the drop in US GDP by 0.3%, this is the first reduction since 2022, worse than expectations (+0.4%). Bitcoin repeated the dynamics of the S&P 500 index.
On May 1, Bitcoin struck $ 95,500 and reached $ 97,424. The technical picture indicated the growth potential by $ 100,000. May 2 reached $ 97,895, but at the end of the week the growth slowed down. On May 3, the BTC/USDT pair rolled up to $ 96,000.
Key events of the week:
The US GDP in the first quarter decreased by 0.3% against growth forecasting by 0.4%, this is the first decrease since 2022. The indicator has strengthened the fears of the recession.
The US labor market added 177 thousand jobs in April, but the data in the previous two months was revised by 58 thousand, which indicates a slowdown.
The PCE index increased to 3.6% against 2.4% quarter earlier, increasing the risks of stagflation.
Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab announced the launch of crypto trade. The largest banks are preparing Bitcoin-ETF by the end of the year.
Donald Trump announced the high probability of trade agreements with China, India, South Korea and Japan.
The yield of 2-year US government bonds dropped to 3.7%, by 70 B.P. Below the key rate of the Fed, this is a signal in favor of its possible decrease.
US Minister of Finance Scott Immentus emphasized that the bond market gives a clear signal about the need to soften monetary policy.
According to Bitriver, the technical picture remains on the side of buyers, in anticipation of possible growth to a psychological level of $ 100,000. The key support levels are $ 95,500 and $ 93,550, and the latter’s breakdown can provoke a fall to $ 91,300.
To continue growth, the market lacks new drivers, so the possible dynamics will be largely determined by macroeconomic data and decisions of the monetary authorities in the coming days.
This week, a number of key events are expected that can significantly affect the market:
May 5 – the publication of index of business activity in the service sector and composite index of business activity from S&P Global for April.
May 7 – FOMC meeting, at which a decision on the interest rate will be made. It is expected that the rate will remain at the level of 4.50%, but the comments of FOMC members can give additional signals about the future monetary policy.
May 9 – performances of several members of FOMC, including K. Waller and the deputy chairman of the Fed for the supervision of Barra.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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