Specialists RBC Crypto Analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“Flat can drag on”
Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
A week from May 26 to May 31 was a test for bitcoin, which, under the pressure of uncertainty in the US trade policy, completes a considerable decline for a week. The price of bitcoin was traded in the range of $ 103,068 – $ 110 718, while since the beginning of the week the asset has lost 4.73%, dropping to $ 103,895. For comparison, Ethereum (ETH) showed a more moderate decrease to $ 2530.
Key events of the week
The main driver of volatility was the actions of the Donald Trump administration in the field of trade policy. At the beginning of the week, the president temporarily postponed the introduction of 50% of tariffs for European goods until July 9 after negotiations with the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Layen. However, subsequent judicial battles around trade duties created additional uncertainty. The federal court recognized tariffs illegal, but the appeal instance temporarily froze this decision, which increased the voltage in all markets.
The situation was aggravated by Trump’s sharp statements to China on Friday, when the president accused Beijing of violation of preliminary trade agreements. Although Trump later mentioned possible negotiations with Xi Jinping, a frequent change in rhetoric creates constant stress for investors. The market has become extremely sensitive to every statement by the American leader that he will have to endure until the end of his term.
The federal reserve system continues to adhere to a waiting position, which was confirmed by the publication of protocols, where the regulator announced a careful approach to a change in monetary policy. The President of the Federal Security Service of the Minneapolis Neil Kashkari noted that the current uncertainty complicates the forecasting of economic prospects and decision-making on monetary policy.
Technical picture
The week began with moderate height to $ 109,434, when the price was traded in the range of $ 108,670 – $ 110,442. However, a gradual decrease began with Tuesday. On Tuesday, Bitcoin lost 0.45%, dropping to $ 108 938, being in the corridor between $ 106,600 and $ 111,980.
The critical moment came on Thursday when the key support level of $ 106,500 was broken. Bitcoin lost 2.03%, dropping to $ 105,589, which expanded the descending correction and opened the way to the next probable target of $ 102,300. On Friday, the decline continued by 1.52% to $ 103,985, and on Saturday the price was traded at $ 103,547.
Buyers could not maintain a critical level of $ 106,500, which allowed sellers to aim at a fall of up to $ 98,000. The current support zone is in the range of $ 100,000 – $ 102,000. If the price reinses above this zone, there is a chance to restore. Given the previous corrections on a weekly schedule, which usually begin with a fall by 5-8% and last about 4 weeks before new growth. So the Flat can drag on.
Fundamental factors
Despite the technical problems, the fundamental picture of bitcoin remains relatively stable. An analysis of the liquidity flow structure shows that the growth of up to $ 112,000 was provided with institutional participants and large holders, and not the speculative activity of retail traders. According to the Glassnode data, the number of addresses with a balance of over 1000 BTC reached 1455, and the volumes of bitcoin on crypto -streaks fell to a minimum since December 2022, confirming the trend of the long -term withdrawal of the asset from the turnover.
Altcoins noticeably lag behind bitcoin, which traditionally serves as a signal of caution, since the weakness of a wide market often precedes correctional movements.
From June 2 to 6, a number of important economic data will be released in the week, which can have a significant impact on the US dollar and US stock indices. Particular attention should be paid to data on the labor market, which will be published on Friday, June 6. An increase in the number of employees in the non -agricultural sector is predicted by 130 thousand, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.2%.
On Monday, June 2, indexes of business activity in the production sector from ISM and S&P Global (48.7 and 52.3 are expected) will be published.
On Wednesday, June 4, the “beige book” of the Fed with a review of current economic conditions in various regions of the United States will be released.
The external background for the market will create both Trump’s statements and macroeconomic data for the new week. The risks of serious subsidence and a level of $ 100,000 are preserved, especially given that the market is extremely sensitive to political rhetoric. The volatility created by the frequent change in the mood of the administration provides opportunities for earnings to algorithmic systems and speculators, but creates difficulties for long -term investors.
“The fundamal is different, but the graphs are priority”
Leading Analyst CIFRA Markets Alexander Kraiko
Last week, the market was covered by a flurry of bull news from the Bitcoin 2025 large conference in Las Vegas. But, as often happens after previously expected events, the “Sell on the News” scenario worked: despite the stream of positive, the price of BTC has gone into the side of the side and decreased to $ 103,000. So far I am not waiting for a powerful rally, more likely consolidation in the range of $ 100,000 to a recorded maximum.
In general, the current situation with a small breakdown of the maximum (All Time High, ATH) is very reminiscent of the scenario of March 2024, when Bitcoin struck $ 69,000 and then went into a descending schedule for six months. There is a risk that the situation will repeat, but now I expect a faster and faster of time the consolidation phase.
The market has already begun to appear on the market that a global “double peak” was formed on the bitcoin schedule, as was the case in 2021. This fear can be deliberately strengthened to provoke sales of speculative participants.
At the same time, the statistically June is a neutral month for BTC: over the past 10 years, it has been close to an average of about 0%.
Among the alarming factors is the S&P 500 index: it depended in the zone with which the descending trend began in 2022. The fundamal is now different, but the graphs are a priority. The global growth scenario for cryptocurrencies will become more real if the index is broken through the ATH, this will add optimism and can push the stablecoins located outside the market to purchases.
From noticeable news – FTX will pay almost $ 5 billion to affected customers. This is a step towards restoration of trust, but without a tangible influence on the price.
Technically, Bitcoin domination, despite the fall in the first half of May, is still in a growing trend, this exerts pressure on altcoins.
For their growth, you still need either a sharp impulse upward from the BTC, or the turn of the Fed towards a decrease in bets to turn on a full-fledged RISK-ON. As long as there are no such conditions, altcoins remain under pressure.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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