Specialists RBC Crypto Analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“The structure of the bull, but the volatility is preserved”
Gis Mining General Vasily Girya
The second week of June turned out to be the most tense from the beginning of the month. After several unsuccessful attempts to overcome the technical level of $ 110,400, bitcoin turned down sharply. The $ 108 450 mark was the starting point of a large -scale sale, the reason is not only in the technical factor, but also in the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
At least a week was recorded at $ 102,654, after which the recovery began. On Friday, the BTC rate was held by $ 103 211. Thus, the price remains under pressure, but the intact levels of $ 100,500 so far, it is there that the key support line takes place. The breakdown of this zone will allow the quotes to go down to $ 93,500. There is almost no doubt that this knowledge will be useful: the probability of testing a bar of $ 100,000 is more than 80%. It is very important for the market to return above $ 107,500. Then the voltage would be less.
The main trigger of turbulence was Israeli’s blows to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of “serious damage”, and the United States officially confirmed Israel’s right to self-defense, but distanced from direct participation. This dual position has increased the level of uncertainty in the global markets and forced investors to temporarily get out of risky assets.
The new protectionist steps of the US President Donald Trump was an additional negative. From June 23, expanded tariffs for household appliances have come into force, and by July 9 an ultimatic package of trade duties for key partners of the United States can be released. This again recalls that the risk of crushing world trade on fragments is high and spoils the mood of institutional investors.
The total capitalization of the crypto carpet for a week fell by almost $ 200 billion. On Friday, forced liquidation, more than 251,000 traders worth $ 1.16 billion were positioned, Coinglass data show. Altcoins were especially strong, because the market “ran” to hide in stablcoins and fiat money.
From a technical point of view, the structure of the bull, but the volatility is high on the daimframe. The price is still below 20-, 50- and 100-day sliding medium. RSI in the neutral zone, which indicates the possibility of moving in both directions. Fixing above $ 107,500 will return to the desired target for $ 115,000.
On the mining front, the week was noted an important event: the hashrate of the Bitcoin network reached a new historical maximum – 1.046 ZH/S. This indicates the stability of the network, but at the same time presses on profitability. This is especially felt in Russia, where from July, electricity tariffs for legal entities will grow. Additionally, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate is affected: since the beginning of the year, he added 44% to the dollar, which reduced the margin of bitcoin production.
Nevertheless, interest in the cryptocurrency industry in the international market remains at a very high level. The institutional ETF temporarily froze, but when weakening geopolitical stress and stabilization of stock markets, capital will return here. The rebound and consolidation observed now are just a pause inside the great movement. In a favorable combination of circumstances, Bitcoin will test $ 115,000 by the middle of summer.
“The trend remains bull”
Chief Analyst NeoMarkets and the author of the Generation Finance telegram channel Oleg Kalmanovich
Bitcoin began a week with growth to $ 110,000, but then rolled sharply to $ 103,000 against the backdrop of an exacerbation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. The geopolitical stress caused a flight from risky assets: oil and gold were risen, and the crypto felt pressure, despite the partial recovery closer to the weekend.
A short -term decline again questioned the status of bitcoin as “digital gold”. However, the market stabilized in $ 105,000 – institutional demand remains. In a week, the spotal ETF attracted over $ 370 million, despite the slowing of the influx.
Support for the crypt was also provided by soft inflation in the USA. CPI for May amounted to +0.1% m/m and +2.4% g/g, and PPI – 0.0% m/m, both are lower than expectations. This increased the hope of reducing bets and strengthened interest in risky assets.
The signals of the convergence of the United States and China were an additional positive. The mitigation of rhetoric in tariffs reduced geo -economic tension, which supported the markets.
The key factor remains the development of the conflict in the Middle East – the dynamics of the dollar, oil and the general risk appetite directly depend on it. The escalation can again exert pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
The current support for Ethereum is at $ 2525. When de -escalation of the conflict, I do not exclude growth by $ 2820 and $ 2960. If the military operations do not stop, it is quite obvious that the market is waiting for the correction to $ 2370 and $ 2130.
From a technical point of view, for bitcoin the trend remains bull. The closest support is concentrated in $ 105,000. During de -escalation, a rebound with the targets of $ 109,900–114,200 is possible. When strengthening the conflict, the subsidence of $ 97,000 is likely – $ 98,000 – the area of interest of customers.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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