Specialists RBC Crypto Analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“The market is ready to break out of the current range”
Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
A week from June 23 to 29, 2025 has become one of the most symbolic for the cryptocurrency market recently. Bitcoin demonstrated an impressive recovery after a sharp fall in the weekend caused by exacerbation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and completes a week in a plus by more than 6%. Ethereum (ETH) also showed an impressive dynamics, adding 9.02% and reaching a level of $ 2428.
The trade ranges of the week covered a wide range of levels from $ 99613 to $ 108272, which reflected high volatility and an active struggle between buyers and sellers. The key trigger for recovery was the signal from US President Donald Trump to achieve a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
On June 23, he became a turning point when Bitcoin made a sharp rebound of 7.92% with a minimum of $ 98200 (June 22) to $ 106074. Investors quickly reacted to a decrease in geopolitical risks using the news of the ceasefire as a purchase signal. The “pigeon” signals from the US federal reserve system provided additional support to the market, where the manager Michelle Bauman announced the readiness to start the rate of betting in July, provided that inflation control.
From June 24 to 28, the bitcoin exchange rate increased by 1.2% – from $ 106083 to $ 107326. The movement was accompanied by political statements and expectations of the revision of the US monetary policy.
On June 24, Bitcoin traded in the range of $ 104622– $ 106290. A de -escalation in the Middle East reduced the demand for protective assets and led to a weakening of the dollar. Representatives of the Fed has announced the uncertainty of the inflation forecast related to the White House tariff policy.
On June 25, the rate rose to $ 107340, while reaching $ 108135 during the day. Support ensured the fall of the dollar after Donald Trump’s words about the intention to prematurely appoint the successor to the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. The probability of reducing the rate in September increased to 91%.
On June 26, Bitcoin adjusted to $ 106947. Trump announced a new trade agreement with China, which should expand the access of American goods to the Chinese market. The details of the document are not yet disclosed.
On June 27, the rate remained almost unchanged – $ 107047. In the USA, according to the results of May, amounted to 2.7% in annual terms and was higher than expectations. The market regarded the data as not preventing the mitigation of the Fed’s policy. On the same day, Trump announced the termination of trade negotiations with Canada due to digital tax, which increased uncertainty. Ethereum lost 1%, lowering below $ 2400.
On June 28, Bitcoin reached $ 107326. Trade Minister Howard Latnik confirmed the signing of a trade agreement with the PRC and announced plans to conclude similar agreements with a number of other countries.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin demonstrated a classic recovery scenario after a sharp fall with subsequent consolidation in the range of $ 106,000- $ 108,000. The support zone was formed at $ 106,000- $ 106,500, where the price was in the side trend for the last two days, which provided a sufficient rest to continue the rising movement. The accumulation phase ended, and the market is ready for attempts to break out of the current range with a target level of $ 109200. Ideal conditions have been created for consolidating prices above $ 109200, followed by updating the historical maximum $ 111980.
The price of Ethereum increased to $ 2520 and stabilized at $ 2428. The road is open to ETH to $ 2850, but it is still very weak against bitcoin. After he switched to staining, he lost the light of popularity. The ETH/BTC pair has been in a descending trend since September 2022.
The “broadcast” against the dollar is trading about 100% of the historical maximum $ 4868. Many investors no longer believe in his success that he can update the maximum in this bull cycle of bitcoin. Buyers need to go 2900 to return without much effort to $ 3400. This level will be a goal for a new week.
This week, from June 30 to July 4, 2025, a number of important economic data are expected. On Thursday, July 3, data on the labor market will be published, including a change in the number of employees in the non -agricultural sector and unemployment level. An increase in the number of employees by 129 thousand and the preservation of unemployment level at the level of 4.2%are expected. Also on Thursday, business activity indices in the production sector and the ISM service sector, which are expected at the level of 48.5 and 50.3, respectively. On July 4, markets do not work due to the Feast of the United States Independence Day, which can reduce trade activity at the end of the week.
“The mood is quite favorable”
Owner and general director Gis Mining Vasily Girya
Bitcoin completes a week at the level of $ 108 thousand. This time the main support was stabilization of stock markets, interest from institutional investors and the growing role of crypto actors in the global agenda. If easier, then support comes from the very base, so it is so strong.
The key event of the week was the expiration of quarterly options on BTC, and it passed without a sharp volatility. The range of fluctuations in the price of the flagship cryptocurrency remained within $ 103,000– $ 107,500, and the interest in bitcoin as digital gold intensified against the background of the fall of the dollar and the presence of geopolitical risks.
Institutional demand remained one of the most important support. In the USA and Europe, there are discussions about the inclusion of digital assets in reserves, and against this background the information that the Texas authorities approved the creation of the state bitcoin fund is only a plus. Grayscale added to the institutional interest index of Avalanche and Morpho (Morpho) tokens, which reflected the increase in demand for new projects in the Web3 ecosystem.
The index of fear and greed has entered the neutral zone. The BTC market capitalization exceeded $ 2.13 trillion, the dominance of the coin – about 64.9%.
Economic signals looked so -so, but even against such a background, BTC was a “well done”. The US GDP in the third, final reading fell by 0.5%g/g in the first quarter of 2025, despite the fact that they were waiting for a decline of 0.2%, and the first estimate showed a reduction by 0.3%. This is the first fact of the fall in the economy since 2022. The failure is based on a sharp increase in imports (by 37.9%) before the introduction of new tariffs, as well as a decrease in government expenses, despite the optimistic dynamics of consumption and investment.
This significant revision of GDP assessment increases the expectations of further softening of the Fed’s policy and makes us doubt the stability of consumer demand. The reversal in the economy calls out the pace of recovery, and the market now expects an assessment by Q2, which will be presented on July 30.
The mood in the digital asset sector is quite favorable. According to GIS Mining, if it is preserved, the target of $ 113,000 will remain relevant. To advance to it, you need to gain a foothold on $ 108,300. Strong support for BTC is located at $ 103,000, and while it works impeccably.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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