Specialists RBC Crypto Analyzed the situation in the market and appreciated the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin course for the next seven days.
“The potential for a turn is preserved”
Gis Mining General Vasily Girya
The first week of June for Bitcoin did not go too well, but ultimately the mood of the market participants nevertheless leveled. The price mainly kept in the range of $ 100,500 – $ 106,000, and all growth attempts above $ 106,500 provoked kickbacks below. The most stable and strong level of support was preserved in the area of $ 103,100, but when the pressure increased pressure, the market temporarily fell below $ 102,000. The total dynamics in the week developed mainly lateral, and volatility was higher than the average levels.
By the end of the week, the cost of the flagship cryptocurrency returned to $ 104,800. Thus, the market quickly came to his senses after the public quarrel of Donald Trump and Ilona Mask and prepared for new movements up.
From the point of view of the technical analysis of bitcoin, a weakening of the “bull” impulse is still visible. The price of a four-hour timframe remains below 20-, 50- and 100-period sliding medium. At the same time, the potential to the turn is preserved if the BTC is fixed above $ 108,000. Such a breakdown can open the way to $ 115,000 and further, to a very ambitious target of $ 130,000, subject to interest from ETF and institutional investors.
From a fundamental point of view, the week was saturated. Circle, the USDC Steabelcoin issuer, successfully conducted an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the CRCL ticer. The company’s shares opened at $ 69, which is significantly higher than the set cost price of $ 31, and completed the first day of trading at $ 83.23 (+168%). For the second trading day, paper has grown by another 20%. The debut impressed. IPO well reflected the growing interest of investors in the adjustable mining market and digital currencies. Such confident experience can stimulate other cryptocurrency companies – for example, Gemini and Kraken – to consider the possibility for public placements.
The US labor market gave mixed signals all week: the number of jobs in the private ADP sector turned out to be symbolic, the weekly requirements for obtaining unemployment benefits have grown, and the final NFP turned out to be neutral. Now the ball is on the side of the Fed.
An important record happened on the mining front this week: the hashrate of the Bitcoin network reached a historical maximum. This means that the complexity of production has increased, and the yield was under pressure especially in Russia, where in addition to July, electricity tariffs for legal entities will grow. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate to the dollar was engaged by 44% since the beginning of the year, which also reduced the profitability of BTC production, and significantly increased the profitability of the ASIKs. It is important to note that the interest of investors in the industry remains: investing in bitcoin through mining still gives access to bitcoin at a price of almost 30% lower than the market.
Against the background of increased complexity of the network and a limited volume of new bitcoins on the market, we can say that current rebound and consolidation are just a pause before a new stove of growth. According to GIS MINING forecasts, the BTC new week can gain a foothold in the corridor of $ 102,000 – $ 106,000. Upon returning to the exchange of a pronounced “bull” impulse, by the middle of the summer, a mark of $ 115,000 will become for it.
“In anticipation of the further development of events”
The head of Tehnobit Alexander Revived
Cryptoes are now mainly under the influence of the information background, and not macroeconomic or technological shifts. The main event of the past week was a media skirmish between US President Donald Trump and his ally (now former) entrepreneur Ilon Mask.
The conflict between Trump and the mask served as a catalyst for a significant correction on the crypto. Their public skirmish, which began with criticism of the Trump tax-budget bill and raising imports for imports, led to exacerbation of relations and mutual accusations, including Trump’s threats to terminate state contracts with mask companies and the mask accusation against Trump with Jeffrey Epstein.
Cryptocurrencies as high -risk and sensitive to the state of info, assets immediately responded to conflict among the Republicans. The tension caused a wave of negative moods in the market: BTC fell below $ 101,000, but managed to return above $ 104,000 by the weekend. ETH decreased by 6% to $ 2,457. Dogecoin, strongly associated with the mask, lost about 10% of the cost. The total liquidation in crypto -crypto per day reached almost $ 1 billion.
This week you can expect to preserve the depressed of a crypto tank due to a stressed information background. The index of fear and greed fell to the neutral zone – investors froze in anticipation of the further development of events. The conflict is unlikely to be exhausted so quickly, but Trump has repeatedly proved that he can surprise with unexpected decisions, so everything is possible.
In addition to the media pressure of cryptocurrencies, the influence of macroeconomic factors will experience. A meeting of the US Federal Reserve at a key rate is approaching, which is scheduled for June 17-18. Although most investors, according to CME FedWatch survey, does not expect a decision to reduce the “key”, the bidders are waiting for signals about the further actions of the regulator.
The tone of Jerome Powell’s accompanying statement will be key: if there are hints of softening there, this flows a positive mood into the market and will serve as a support for sagging cryptoactives.
The last sale against the background of the media background shifted the demand zone below the psychological mark of $ 100,000. The support level is now formed in the area of $ 97,800-$ 98,500. The upper limit of the range is now passing in the region of $ 108,000-$ 110,000. Ethereum is unlikely to surprise investors, taking into account its dynamics of recent months. The most likely forecast for ETH is the continuation of oscillations around $ 2,500.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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