What we know about the missile fired by North Korea

North Korea fired a ballistic missile without warning at Japan on Monday for the first time in five years. A highly provocative and reckless act that marks a significant escalation in its weapons testing program.

The missile flew over northern Japan early in the morning and is believed to have landed in the Pacific Ocean. The last time North Korea fired a ballistic missile at Japan was in 2017.

This marks North Korea’s 23rd ballistic missile launch this year, which is also the highest number of ballistic missiles fired in a single year since leader Kim Jong Un took power in 2012.

By comparison, Pyongyang conducted four tests in 2020 and eight in 2021.

What do we know about the missile?

The missile traveled a distance of about 4,600 kilometers, with an altitude of about 1,000 kilometers and a top speed that reached Mach 17, which is 17 times the speed of sound, according to Japanese officials.

For comparison, the US island territory of Guam is just 3,380 kilometers (2,100 miles) from North Korea.

Two experts told the CNN that these flight details suggest the missile fired was likely a Hwasong-12, an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) last tested in January.

“This is a missile that North Korea started testing in 2017… So it’s not really a new missile,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the CNS’s East Asia Non-Proliferation Program.

But, he added, its launch is significant because of the distance it can travel. “North Korea has a lot of missiles that have a shorter range, and those wouldn’t go through Japan, but they have a small number of missiles that can make that trip,” he said.

Why is that so important? Is there danger?

North Korea routinely fires its missiles into waters off the coast of the Korean peninsula, making this flight over Japan considerably more provocative, both for practical and symbolic reasons.

This type of unannounced launch can present risks to aircraft and ships as the missile travels towards its target, as they would have no advance warning to avoid the area. And if the test had failed, causing the missile’s path to fall short, it could have put significant population areas at risk.

The missile flew over Japan’s Tohoku region, according to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, which is home to more than 8 million people.

In the past, US planes were grounded as a ‘precaution’ after North Korean missile launches. And in late November 2017, it was reported that several commercial airliner pilots saw what appeared to be the re-entry of a North Korean missile as it approached the Sea of ​​Japan.

However, Lewis emphasized, these risks are statistically low, especially in the Pacific and far above Japan during the flyby. It’s mostly escalation simply because “it’s provocative to fire a missile at your neighbor.” “Especially for the Japanese, it feels like a violation of their sovereignty,” Lewis said.

“If Russia fired a missile over Florida, we would have an attack.”

And, experts say, it’s a sign of Kim’s ambitions for North Korea’s weapons development and what’s to come.

Why did North Korea fire the missile now?

There are differing opinions on what may have prompted North Korea to fire the missile on Monday.

Robert Ward, senior fellow for Japanese Security Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed to the multiple security threats facing Japan, from an aggressive Russia in the north and China in the south. “North Korea may be trying to exploit the unstable international situation, which can be seen as a tailwind,” he said.

Lewis disagreed, saying that while North Korea sometimes responds to or retaliates against specific actions by Western actors or groups, more often than not “they have their own timeline… and I don’t think we’ll have much of an impact on the calendar.”

There are also practical reasons. North Korea often takes breaks from testing during the summer when the weather is bad, and restarts as soon as autumn and early winter arrives, which means that now could be the right conditions for a test, he added.

Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, added that Tuesday’s flight path could simply serve as a better test.

These types of missiles are intended for long-range targets, so flying over Japan can help North Korea assess their accuracy at a greater distance, their ability to withstand different forces exerted on the missile, and other factors, compared to with its usual “elevated” tests, with missiles traveling at higher altitudes and falling towards western Japan.

What comes next?

Kim vowed earlier this year to develop North Korea’s nuclear weapons at the “highest possible” speed, and experts say Tuesday’s launch is part of that effort to advance the weapons.

“North Korea will continue to conduct missile tests until the current round of modernization is completed,” Lewis said, adding that a nuclear test could take place “at any time.”

South Korean and US officials have been warning since May that North Korea may be preparing for a nuclear test, with satellite images showing activity at its underground nuclear test site.

If North Korea does carry out a test, it will be the country’s seventh underground nuclear test and the first in nearly five years. There are also other missile tests to watch.

In addition to the Hwasong-12, North Korea also has three intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of flying over Japan, although they have not yet been tested “over their entire range,” Lewis said. “This is probably an appetizer before the main course, which is yet to come,” he added.

“I hope that when North Korea gets more confident in one of its ICBMs, it can fly one of them at full speed over Japan.”

Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, added that North Korea may be waiting until China holds its Communist Party Congress in mid-October to “make an even more significant test”.

“The Kim regime is developing weapons such as tactical nuclear warheads and submarine-launched ballistic missiles as part of a long-term strategy to overcome South Korea in an arms race and create a wedge between US allies,” Easley said. .