The history of observations shows that September is traditionally the worst month for the most capitalized cryptocurrency – bitcoin (BTC). For the past six years, the coin has met the beginning of autumn with a fall. Worse, only a five-year streak of declines in March between 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin movement statistics by month. Source: bitcoinmonthlyreturn
When making a bitcoin forecast for September, it is also worth paying attention to the position of the cryptocurrency in relation to halving. The next halving of BTC mining speed will take place in the spring of 2024. The observational history shows that in periods that correspond to a similar BTC distance before the halving (September falls on days 228-198 before the halving), the cryptocurrency spends mainly in the sideways.
Comparison of bitcoin movement by epoch. Orange curve – BTC movements from the moment the network was launched to the first halving; the pink curve is the movement of bitcoin after the first halving in 2012; the blue curve is the movement of BTC after the 2016 halving; the green curve is the movement of BTC after the 2020 halving (current epoch). Source: GlassNode
Bitcoin forecast for September 2023 from experts
StormGain crypto exchange expert Dmitry Noskov preferred to build his bitcoin forecast for September around changes in the Fed’s key rate. The regulator will present another decision on September 20. As of the time of writing, 80% of market participants considerthat the Fed will leave rates unchanged.
The increase in the Fed’s key rate puts pressure on the stock market, followed by bitcoin. Also, its increase reduces the attractiveness of such high-risk assets as cryptocurrency. Refusal to raise the rate may be a positive signal for the crypto market.
Gracie Chen, Managing Director of Bitget, shared a similar opinion. She also believes that the bitcoin rate in September will be highly dependent on the actions of the Fed.
Alexander Zdanovich, an accredited financial market specialist and a practicing trader with eight years of experience, joined the discussion of BTC prospects. According to his observations, the technical picture of BTC indicates upside potential. Therefore, the expert supported the positive Bitcoin forecast for September.
Given that September is the worst month for BTC, Alexander Zdanovich did not rule out a further decline, up to $22,500. At the same time, he noted that a bad September is followed by a traditionally profitable October for cryptocurrency investors. The potential for a continuation of the correction in September against the backdrop of an impending reversal, in his opinion, may further lead BTC to $33-42 thousand.
Also, Maxim Volkov, the general producer of the Skillful Intelligence award, gave his forecast for the Bitcoin price for September. In his opinion, this time BTC has every chance to break the negative pattern and show growth in early autumn. His Bitcoin forecast for September does not rule out a return to $30,000. He explains his positive vision of the near future of the cryptocurrency by improving its technical performance.
Summing up: what will September be like for bitcoin
The observational history indicates that BTC most often spends the first month of autumn in a fall. At the same time, analysts believe that this time the Fed’s policy will play a key role. Most experts gave a positive forecast for Bitcoin for September 2023. In their opinion, this time the cryptocurrency has every chance to interrupt the series of falls.
Source: Cryptocurrency
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