What will happen to Bitcoin this week?

Specialists RBC Crypto analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate over the next seven days.

“Conditions and seasonal factors on the buyers’ side”

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov

Last week, the cryptocurrency market showed strong growth, with Bitcoin trading in the range from $62,270 to $69,000. Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has risen in price by 8.98%, reaching $68,268, while Ethereum (ETH) added 7.03 %, rising to $2642.

The rally began on Monday in the Asian session, when a breakout of $63,400 triggered protective stops on short positions. According to Coinglass, $55.4 million worth of BTC shorts were liquidated in 24 hours. The growth was supported by positive economic data from China and the United States, as well as a recovery in investor demand.

On October 15, the market continued to grow, reaching an intraday high of $67,950, but then a correction followed to $64,800 amid a decline in American stock indices. On October 16, the day was marked by a new rise to $68,387. Market sentiment was positively influenced by statements by US presidential candidates from both leading parties – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who expressed their intention to support the development of the crypto industry if they win the elections.

On October 17, the price was sideways between the levels of $66,593 and $67,850, which could be regarded as consolidation before further growth.

On October 18, Bitcoin reached a weekly high of $69,000 amid rising stock indices and a weakening US dollar. The major US indices completed their sixth straight week of gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.96% for the week, the S&P 500 up 0.85% and the NASDAQ Composite up 0.8%. Positive financial reports from companies and favorable economic data supported the growth of indices.

On October 19, the price of Bitcoin corrected to $68,414, encountering resistance in the $68,600-$68,800 zone. This area is holding back buyers from updating the historical high. According to BitRiver, the current situation is characterized by high tension: the potential for growth to the psychological level of $100 thousand remains, however, there are risks of a sharp correction in the event of a reversal in the stock markets. To reduce risks, a small correction until October 23 with maintaining the level of $66,000 is desirable. This would relieve tension and prepare the ground for a more sustainable breakout of the $70,000 mark in the period from October 27 to 30.

Among the key events of the week, it is worth noting the restoration of international investor demand for digital currencies. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), since the beginning of autumn, the influx of funds into specialized crypto funds has averaged about $0.5 billion per week, which is 68% higher than August figures. Statements by US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump also had a positive impact on the market.

Overall, the week demonstrated steady market growth on the back of favorable macroeconomic factors and increased investor interest. However, the proximity to all-time highs and possible fluctuations in traditional financial markets require market participants to be increasingly cautious and to closely monitor key support and resistance levels. Any unsuccessful breakout of Bitcoin down to $68,800 could trigger mass fixing of long positions among retail investors. And so external conditions and seasonal factors are on the side of buyers.

“At the moment the way is up”

Professional crypto trader Boris Zabavnikov

There are two weeks left before the US elections, which many consider key for crypto in the medium term. By data Polymarket, betting on Donald Trump to win ahead of Kamala Harris.

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin, which has been consolidating in the range of $55-70 thousand for the last six months, from a technical point of view, is preparing for a breakdown of the historical maximum and an impulse to the region of $80 thousand at a minimum. This consolidation, moreover, took place while the rest of the crypto market was mostly declining (except for memcoins and a few key assets like Solana).

Selling pressure from bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox, the negative from the claims of the American SEC, the “expulsion” of market makers from the USA have already been absorbed. Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are stable. According to on-chain analytics, “whale” wallets (containing from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) have been accumulating coins all this time. It is now difficult to imagine fundamental or realistically predictable macroeconomic and political factors that could prevent “digital gold” from showing high-quality performance in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Of course, there will be kickbacks. Of course, immediately during and after the elections there will be serious volatility and the “landing” of players abusing leverage. But at the moment the way is up.

What about altcoins? With them, everything is not so simple and unambiguous. Ethereum continues to show weakness in the ETH/BTC pair.

At the same time, many assets look ready to emerge from months-long consolidations. But the specific market share of BTC is now also at multi-year highs, and without starting to record the flow of liquidity into altcoins (for example, through the growth of the ETH/BTC pair), it is premature to bring all the capital into the market.

I continue to believe that we will see overall growth in the coming months. But you should exercise caution and risk management to the end. We have weathered most of the negative phase of the market and it would be unfortunate to stumble before the start of a bull market cycle due to a few unnecessary mistakes.

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