O Donald Trump he may be “immersed” in difficult legal disputes, but while he tries to exploit to his advantage even the photograph of his arrest, in the divided society of USA considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination ahead of the presidential elections of 2024 – even though he snubbed the debate of the candidates. Thus, his return to the White House remains within the realm of possibility. And this would “cause a shock”, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Officials who spoke to this medium made their estimates on how the geopolitical and economic scenario could change in the scenario of the tycoon’s election. They also expressed their concerns about a new global trade war, as well as a possible withdrawal of the US from NATO, which would also mean an end to support for Ukraine.
Allies and rivals are already making their plans
So keeping in mind the polls “friends” and “enemies” of the USA around the world are already preparing their strategy and making their plans and how they would act in a new period of Trump administration.
“Allies from Paris to Tokyo see Trump as an aloof leader with little interest in cultivating long-term ties or fending off the expansionism of Russia and China. Others including Beijing and Moscow see potential benefits from Trump, who they see as a leader willing to make deals to ease tensions in hot spots such as Ukraine and Taiwan, analysts said. Nationalist and populist politicians are also expressing support for Trump’s ambitions,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Officially, of course, government officials and politicians refuse to make any statement that could be perceived as undermining the current or next US administration and spark a backlash from one side or the other. However, officials who spoke to the WSJ on condition of anonymity shared their thoughts.
The global trade war
The most widespread concern is that a possible return of Trump to the White House would trigger a new global trade war, at a time when we are already suffering from the war in Ukraine, explosive inflation and rising interest rates. The Republican nominee has threatened to impose new tariffs on all U.S. imports — striking a blow not just at opponents but allies.
China, meanwhile, has been waiting for changes in Joe Biden’s policy after the tensions that prevailed in its economic relations during the Trump administration. However, Biden has maintained a hard line, in part because of the war in Ukraine. Restrictions on Chinese tech companies have expanded, including a U.S. ban on selling advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China last year.
On the other hand, with Trump wanting to reduce military aid to other countries, Taiwan would probably weaken and this would be considered a favorable development for Beijing.
The possibility of leaving NATO
Trump has even threatened to withdraw the US from NATO – which would also mean withdrawing support for Ukraine. “There are strong chances of Trump’s re-election”, says Benjamin Haddad, a French MP from Emmanuel Macron’s party. “It forces us Europeans to see the message and take more responsibility.” “Trump underestimates US allies” for her part, Bonnie Glaser, general director of the Indian-Pacific Ocean program at the German Marshall Fund, emphasizes.
These scenarios cause intense concerns across Europe and the Pacific. The Biden administration had sought to strengthen ties and influence in Asia, even brokering the restoration of Japan-South Korea relations. And Washington has sent billions in defense equipment and humanitarian aid to Kiev to resist the Russian invasion.
Trump’s re-election would probably be viewed favorably by Russia and Vladimir Putin, who has been preparing for a long conflict in Ukraine. Trump has previously said that if he were in charge the war would be over in five minutes…
What are Germany and France doing?
French officials told the WSJ that the possibility of Trump returning to the White House means that the Europeans should significantly increase their own productive weapons systems so that they can adequately supply the Ukrainians even without American assistance. Eastern European countries are also pushing for Ukraine to join NATO – in order for Ukraine to have security guarantees – although many other European countries see this as a bad idea.
Macron was surprised when a German-led coalition announced plans to spend billions of euros on a program to buy Patriot missile systems from the US, snubbing a rival system developed by France, Italy and the UK.
According to Biden, Macron has long been skeptical that the election of President Biden in 2020 marks the end of the Trump era. Biden has recounted that arriving at his first G-7 summit as president, he told his counterparts: “America is back.” Macron replied: “For how long?”.
Germany is now focusing more on developing communication channels in an effort to avoid a repeat of 2016, when Trump’s election caught Berlin by surprise.. Angela Merkel’s government has had great difficulty gaining “access” to White and the Merkel-Trump relationship. According to the WSJ, Wolfgang Schmidt, a close associate of Olaf Scholz, has made regular visits to Washington, developing ties with key Republican officials. In September, the German Foreign Minister, Analena Burbock, will make a 10-day visit to the USA, during which she will also visit Texas, a stronghold of the Republicans.
Of course, Chancellor Olaf Solz recently emphasized that he considers it unlikely that he will see Donald Trump in the Oval Office again.
Israel, the Middle East and Iran
In the leaders of Israel and Saudi Arabia, but also of the rest of the countries of the Middle East, there is allegedly skepticism. Donald Trump is extremely popular in Israel and aligns with the policies and views of the far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu. In an interview this summer, Netanyahu praised Trump but declined to say whether he had close contact with him. “I think he did things that were wonderful for Israel’s security,” Netanyahu said. “So I appreciate that”.
Meanwhile, efforts have been made in recent months to develop a relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Iran, for its part, is moving to release American prisoners in a bid to gain access to some $6 billion in oil revenue. The money, effectively frozen in South Korea under US sanctions, is being flown through Switzerland to Qatar for possible release in Iran.
This month, Iran moved four American citizens from prison to house arrest, the first step in an expected prisoner release deal between Tehran and the Biden administration. Trump as president withdrew from the 2015 deal that put limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. He tightened sanctions against Iran and criticized the Obama administration’s release of frozen Iranian funds.
Source: News Beast
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