Japan has backed its condemnation of the war in Ukraine with sanctions on Russian officials and oligarchs, but experts say they are not the only target audience for Tokyo’s outrage. The message was also given to China.
Since Moscow attacked Ukraine, analysts have drawn comparisons between Russia’s actions and China’s declared ambition to seek Taiwan’s “reunification” with the mainland. The “what if” scenario did not go unnoticed by Japanese leaders.
In the early days of the invasion, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was quick to frame the Ukraine crisis as a global issue. “This is a very serious situation that not only affects Europe but also Asia and the entire world order,” he told reporters.
And the Japanese audience seems to be in tune with his views. In a country typically more focused on domestic issues, war is dominating news coverage.
Thousands of anti-war protesters took to the streets of cities across the country, and a recent poll shows that more than 80% of the 1,063 people polled support Japan’s economic sanctions against Russia.
For Japan, support for Ukraine serves a dual purpose, according to Yoko Iwama, an expert on international relations and security at the National Graduate Institute of Political Studies.
“The purpose of Japan’s response is to send a message that we will be ready and resist if there is an invasion (of Japanese territory), that we will not allow borders to be forcibly altered,” Iwama said.
“We don’t want a real war, the goal is political – for China to be persuaded of an aggressive act like what Putin has taken in recent days and weeks.”
It is against this backdrop that former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe raised a previously unthinkable suggestion during an interview three days after the Russian invasion.
Abe, still an influential figure in the Liberal Democratic Party, floated the idea of Japan entering a NATO-like nuclear weapons-sharing program – hosting US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
It was a shocking proposal for the country that suffered the devastating impact of the two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II – but a proposal that, according to Abe, should no longer be taboo.
Different times, changing tactics
Japan’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine differs markedly from its actions after Moscow’s 2014 attack on Crimea.
At that time, under Abe, Japan was criticized for being too slow to act. Now, their strategy is different – and the urgency is arguably greater.
In 2014, Abe adopted the tactic of bringing Russia closer to avoid deepening Russian ties with China, said James Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University in Tokyo.
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula by sending armed forces to seize key facilities and foment an eight-year separatist rebellion.
Initially, Tokyo treated Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region as a Western issue, according to Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“(The Japanese government) treated it, in a way, as a problem for Europeans and Americans to deal with; that it wasn’t really about Japan, but that they would agree with that,” Smith said.
She said Abe was hopeful that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would sign off on normalizing Russia-Japan ties or a full peace treaty that would formally end hostilities dating back to World War II.
But Japan’s softer stance against Russia drew international criticism, and Tokyo ended up joining its Western allies in imposing sanctions on Russia, including diplomatic measures that consisted of suspending negotiations related to easing visa requirements, banning travel. and freezing the assets of certain individuals.
However, this year, the scale and horror of the crisis unfolding in Ukraine has prompted Japan to spread a consistent message of unity with its G7 partners to show that it is a “trusted partner”, explained Brown of Temple University.
“You hear time and time again, the government say – ‘and together with our G7 and other international partners, we are going to coordinate a tough response on this issue’ – they don’t want to be seen as out of step,” Brown said.
Japan needs the support of the G7, especially the US, to stem any move by Beijing on Taiwan, the island China claims as its territory despite never having ruled it.
Then, last week, Japan added even more sanctions against Russia and Belarus — freezing the assets of 32 more Russian and Belarusian officials and oligarchs.
And, in a rare move, it also revised its guidelines on the transfer of defense equipment abroad, paving the way for the transport of bulletproof vests and helmets to Ukraine. Tokyo also joined the effort to cut Russia off the Swift banking system and froze Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s assets.
Experts say Japan wants to accompany its international allies in the face of the unfolding human tragedy and China’s growing military might.
‘Sense of urgency’
For decades after World War II, Japan’s pacifist constitution prevented it from increasing its military strength. Article 9 of the document said that “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained”.
But in recent years, the country has signaled a move toward greater military spending, and in December last year, Prime Minister Kishida announced that the government was exploring options to give Japan the ability to attack enemy bases.
China is considered a major threat, but the combined strength of Russia and China has put Japan under considerable pressure.
Last year, the two countries carried out what was billed as the first joint China-Russia naval patrol in the western Pacific. The ships sailed through the Tsugaru Strait, which separates Japan’s main island and its northern island of Hokkaido, before descending the country’s east coast and then heading back towards China via the Osumi Strait, via the Japanese island of Kyushu, in the south.
Foreign vessels are allowed to sail through the Osumi and Tsugaru Straits – both in international waters – but Japan closely monitored the maneuvers, which the country’s Department of Defense called “unusual”.
Japan’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that 10 Russian Navy ships, including a frigate, had sailed through Tsugaru Strait the day before, heading for the Sea of Japan.
Japan has territorial disputes with China and Russia. Last year, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told CNN that the Senkaku Islands, known to China as the Diaoyu Islands, are unquestionably Japanese territory and would be defended as such. Japan also disputes Russia’s claim to the Kuril Islands, a chain of islands off Hokkaido.
And then there’s Taiwan, which lies to the south, in waters used to transport 90% of Japan’s oil supply.
Last year, Japan passed a record 5.4 trillion yen ($47.2 billion) defense budget for 2022, which exceeded 1% of its GDP.
Some say the crisis in Ukraine, in addition to local security considerations, shows that even more commitment is needed.
breaking taboos
But the extra defense funding is just one aspect of Japan’s shield against escalating regional tensions.
Last month, Abe used his position as a former leader to raise another, even more controversial prospect – the idea of hosting US nuclear weapons in Japan.
“Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has its three non-nuclear principles, but it is essential to understand how the world’s security is maintained, and we should not treat these discussions as a taboo,” Abe told Fuji Television.
Kishida immediately dismissed the suggestion, calling it “unacceptable”, while anti-nuclear activists were predictably outraged.
Japan falls within the US nuclear organization but has long ruled out hosting nuclear weapons due to the devastation caused by atomic bombs dropped during World War II.
When asked about Abe’s comments at a news conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Japanese politicians made “wild comments” that “openly violate the Three Non-Nuclear Principles themselves and the obligations of a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty”.
“By increasing nuclear sharing with the US, Japan has completely exposed the dangerous trend of persistent militarism in the country,” he added.
In the interview, Abe also urged the US to take a more explicit stance on defending Taiwan, on whether or not it would defend the self-governing island if Beijing attacked.
Last year, US President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China, a comment that seemed incongruous with the country’s stated policy of “strategic ambiguity”.
However, a government official later said that the US was not announcing any changes to its policy on Taiwan – under the “One China” Policy, the US recognizes China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.
One thing is clear: Russia’s attack on Ukraine has shaken the Japanese and forced them to face questions that some wanted to avoid.
“People are asking, ‘Will the United States really come if the Chinese attack? Will the United States go to war with China?’” said Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations.
“These are all recent issues that are bubbling under the surface, based on the capabilities first of North Korea, but also of China. And I think this is also being exposed as Putin uses nuclear threats,” she added.
With information from Yuki Kurihara of Tokyo
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
