The halving and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF trading are long gone, but BTC is still trading well below its all-time high. This behavior of the cryptocurrency has made crypto community members wonder when the bull run might start, and if it will start at all.
We tell you when, according to crypto community members, a bull run might occur.
What’s Happening With Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to decline. As of the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $60,959, which is almost 13% below the halving rate on April 20, 2024, and 17% below the absolute maximum, which was recorded on March 14, 2024 at $73,750.
Observations allow us to assert that Bitcoin movements are cyclical. Analysis of the BTC rainbow chart shows that the cryptocurrency starts growing on average 4-5 months after halving. Bitcoin needs about 16 months to reach its absolute maximum. If we superimpose the dynamics of past cycles on the current one, it turns out that BTC may start the long-awaited growth in the second half of summer. According to this logic, the absolute maximum may be updated at the end of summer 2025.
Bitcoin’s behavior can be adjusted by the inflow/outflow of assets from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the long-awaited launch of which took place in the United States in January 2024. The instrument democratizes access to cryptocurrency. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs increase the centralization of BTC by accumulating a large volume of coins in the hands of a small group of investors.
Bitcoin funds already control a large share of the Bitcoin market. Over time, their BTC holdings could grow, which means that the issuers of such instruments will also increase their control over the crypto industry.
In the event of an outflow of assets from Bitcoin funds, the cryptocurrency will come under pressure, as it already happened in early 2024. Growing interest in such instruments, on the contrary, can become a powerful driver of BTC growth.
Whether spot Bitcoin ETFs will support the growth of the cryptocurrency or put pressure on the cryptocurrency rate depends on how things are going in the economy. Uncertainty in the financial market may increase investors’ interest in BTC as a tool for protecting savings from inflation. The movement of the US Federal Reserve towards reducing the key interest rate may also increase the attractiveness of such high-risk assets as crypto.
When is the bull run?
Many in the crypto community believe that a bull run is just around the corner. For example, a positive forecast gave analyst PlanB. His S2F model for forecasting the BTC rate signals the beginning of a bull run.
Positive Bitcoin Forecast PlanB supported analyst Jason Williams. He compared BTC’s behavior in previous cycles to show subscribers the expected levels that the cryptocurrency may be heading towards. Analysis of the coin’s movement patterns, in his opinion, indicates an impending bull run.
Similar post published by crypto blogger Crypto Rover. He also expects BTC to rise soon.
That the crypto market is on the verge of a bull run, believes and analyst Oriel Ohayon. Based on his chart markings, the cryptocurrency could enter a phase of active growth in the fall of 2024.
The optimists were joined by Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research Tom Lee, who believes that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year.
Tom Lee explained his positive forecast by removing Mt. Gox from the equation. Recall that the trustees of the crypto exchange that collapsed in 2014 announced the start of payments to creditors. Mt. Gox will transfer 142,000 BTC, 143,000 BCH and 69 billion Japanese yen to those affected by the collapse of the trading platform. Crypto community members were wary of Mt. Gox payments, as the event could flood the market with bitcoins and collapse the cryptocurrency rate. At the same time, against the backdrop of the completion of the procedure for settling accounts with creditors, the crypto exchange will no longer pose a threat to the market.
Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, in turn, considersthat the impact of the release of a large volume of bitcoins on the market is exaggerated. In his opinion, in the current conditions, most investors are using the BTC sell-off to buy additional coins.
However, there are also negative forecasts, the authors of which suggest that the bull run is already behind us. For example, this is the opinion of Peter Brandt, a popular trader in the crypto community.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
I am an experienced journalist and writer with a career in the news industry. My focus is on covering Top News stories for World Stock Market, where I provide comprehensive analysis and commentary on markets around the world. I have expertise in writing both long-form articles and shorter pieces that deliver timely, relevant updates to readers.
