Which holds back the growth of bitcoin

Bitcoin has been trading above $ 100,000 for more than 40 consecutive days, but remains in the side trend between $ 100,000 and $ 110,000. This is due to an increase in the influx of funds in spot ETFs, increasing the capitalization of steablecoins and positive news about the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States, writes RBC Crypto.

Against this background, the question arises: who sells bitcoin at these levels and restrains growth, despite the sustainable demand from the funds?

According to Alexander Bloom, the managing partner of the Two Prime investment company, Bitcoin is now in the transitional phase from speculative participants to long -term investors.

“Against the backdrop of geopolitical instability, it is logical that speculators and traders with a credit shoulder come out of positions. At the same time, new long -term investors use drawings to enter the market, ”Bloom said in a comment to Coindesk. “It seems that we are at the equilibrium point between these two groups.”

According to Glassnode, in recent days the main part of the recorded profit in the Bitcoin market was provided by investors who have held coins for less than a year. On Monday, such wallets accounted for 83% of the total amount of profit. Of these, only the addresses with the history of storage from six to twelve months brought $ 904 million – this is the second largest indicator from the beginning of the year.

The activity of short -term holders intensified after an even more large -scale fixation of profit from long -term investors in May and early June. Last week, according to Glassnode, the wallets stored bitcoins for more than 12 months have made a profit of $ 1.2 billion – this is the maximum of the beginning of the year. Seven days later, the amount decreased to $ 324 million.

“Long -term investors continue to sell against the background of sustainable demand from the ETF – in fact, they absorb this influx and hold the price in the range,” said the founder of 10x Research Marcus Tilen in a note for customers. “Such a balance reduces volatility, but sooner or later a breakthrough will occur.”

Miners also sell bitcoin

According to Intoleblock, miners continue to bring coins to the market. Since the end of May, their total balances have declined from about 1.94 million to 1.91 million BTC, which is equivalent to the sale of about 30,000 bitcoins in 20 days.

“Miners are forced to sell regularly. And, surprisingly, some long -term holders also gradually go to Fiat to manage their dollar obligations, ”said Coindesk, head of the XBTO crypto platform, Philip Beckazi. – “The key factor is volumes. It is important whether transactions are taking place on large volumes – it is they who can unfold quickly, since they have a lot of speculative capital. ”

At the same time, the share of miners in the total trading volume in the spot market remains extremely low and in June has reached a minimum since 2022.

The accumulation has slowed down

Large and small investors actively increased positions during the spring growth of bitcoin from $ 75,000, but after overcoming the $ 100,000 mark, this trend was noticeably weakened.

“As soon as Bitcoin overcame the $ 100,000 mark, the accumulation patterns began to weaken,” said Benjamin Lilly, founder of Jarvis Labs. In his opinion, the cause of slowdown was partly the growth of the attractiveness of alternative strategies. Against the backdrop of the rapid increase in financing, delta-neutral positions began to bring 15-30% per annum, which could push investors to reduce the purchases of bitcoin and switch to less risky methods of earning.

Delta-neutral positions are usually understood as strategies in which the investor simultaneously opens long and short positions on the same asset to earn not on the growth or fall of the price, but on the difference in profitability. For example, you can buy bitcoin in the spot market and sell it on a futures with a contract with a high financing rate (Funding Rate). While this rate remains positive, the trader receives income, practically without risking the price of the asset itself.

The co -founder of Orbit Markets Jimmy Young in the comment Coindesk noted that as Bitcoin becomes a more mature and stable asset, investors are changing – now they do not count on a multiple growth in a short time. This, according to him, encourages some holders to reorient part of the capital to other assets.

“Although Bitcoin retains growth potential, investors are no longer waiting for profit 10 or 100 times in a short period. Therefore, we see how some long -term holders reduce positions in BTC to diversify the portfolio due to investments in the action, gold and private placement. From the point of view of asset management, this is a very reasonable step, ”Yang said.

What’s next

According to Yang, in the near future the market is unlikely to wait for bright movements: Bitcoin still follows the stock indices and the overall attitude of investors to risky assets.

“Both classes of assets are traded near historical maximums. If the stock market goes up, Bitcoin will most likely follow it. But with the onset of summer lull, activity will probably remain low, ”Yang noted in a comment to Coindesk.

Alexander Bloom from Two Prime recalled that from the beginning of the quarter, Bitcoin has grown from $ 78,000 to more than $ 100,000, and now the market may cool a little.

“Bitcoin added in a short time, so the correction would be logical. At the same time, current drawdowns remain shallow and this indicates the power of the market before a possible new stage of growth, ”he said.

According to Marcus Tilen from 10x Research, now important technical levels are $ 102,000 as support and $ 106,000 as the nearest resistance.

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