White House expects Israel to attack Iran before US election

American officials expect Israel to retaliate against Iran for its attack earlier this month before November 5, sources told CNN a timeline that would place growing volatility in the Middle East squarely in public view just days after the American presidential election.

The timing and parameters of Israel’s retaliation against Iran have been the subject of intense debate within the Israeli government and are not directly related to the timing of the US election, the sources said.

Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — described by senior U.S. government officials as a political animal deeply attuned to American politics — appears highly sensitive to any potential political ramifications of Israel’s actions in the U.S., they said.

The growing conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a persistent issue in the American election. President Joe Biden, and by extension Vice President Kamala Harris, have faced pressure from progressives for their handling of the situation. Meanwhile, Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, accused the government of botching the crisis, sending the world into chaos.

As the election approaches, the government has begun applying new pressure on Israel to improve humanitarian conditions inside Gaza. In a scathing letter revealed this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned Israel that a failure to deliver more aid to the enclave could trigger a cut in military assistance.

But in a sign of the tense political dynamics, the letter was not signed by the president or vice president, neither of whom publicly threatened to cut aid to Israel despite pressure from the left. His deadline for allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza falls after the election. And the warning came in the same week that an advanced US air defense system arrived in Israel to defend the country against Iranian attacks.

How the conflict will play out in the three weeks before Election Day remains one of the biggest uncertainties for both presidential campaigns. While not a top-tier issue for many voters, the crisis has complicated Harris’ efforts to win Michigan, a state with a large concentration of Arab-American voters. She is campaigning in the state for three days this week.

Attack could turn the dispute upside down

For Biden and Harris, the outbreak of a broader regional conflict would represent an unwelcome development on an issue that has already caused them major political headaches.

Netanyahu is aware of how a potential counterattack could reshape the presidential race, according to assessments by some US officials, adding a layer of complexity to the ongoing diplomacy between the two nations in recent months.

Biden, after Iran’s missile attack earlier this month, did not attempt to dissuade Netanyahu from responding with force. But aware of the prospects of all-out war or rising oil prices in the presidential race, he and his team worked to encourage a restrained reprisal.

Biden administration officials have been notably tight-lipped about the timing and targets of Israel’s next counterattack after Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles into the Jewish state earlier this month.

Netanyahu informed Biden last week that Israel does not intend to go after Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities during this round of retaliation, the report said. CNN earlier, a message that was met with relief inside the White House. Biden had publicly encouraged Israel to avoid such targets.

In a statement, Netanyahu’s office said: “We listen to the views of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” an indication that despite any assurances he offered to Biden, the scope of the response of Israel may be different from what the White House has encouraged.

It is unknown whether Israel’s attacks on Iran would be limited to physical targeting of military assets or would also include a cyberwarfare component. U.S. officials will closely monitor not only their ally’s counterattack but the response it gets from Iran as the Biden administration hopes to prevent another full-blown war from breaking out in the Middle East.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby said “there is little doubt that the Iranians know how seriously” the US takes its commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense.

“But I don’t think it would be helpful for me, one way or another, to get into the details of the diplomacy,” Kirby said, while declining to comment on the ways in which U.S. officials may have worked to try to shape the eventual response. from Israel to Iran.

Biden called for a measured response

However, in many ways, these efforts have been demonstrated publicly. Biden, speaking to reporters on several occasions earlier this month, called for a measured response and suggested he was conveying those views directly to Israel.

In a phone conversation last week, Biden and Netanyahu had a “straightforward” conversation about Iran response plans, according to the White House. Harris also joined the confidential call, later describing it as an “important” discussion.

American officials were extraordinarily stingy about the two leaders’ conversation. Previous calls between the men were strained when Biden confronted what he saw as Netanyahu’s lack of cooperation in securing an end to the war.

Biden has become frustrated that Netanyahu appears to ignore his advice and recommendations and publicly reject his attempts to reduce regional temperatures. Some American officials have privately speculated that the Israeli leader is seeking to boost Trump in the weeks leading up to the November election.

However, until this week, Biden stopped well short of threatening to condition American assistance to Israel on efforts to improve humanitarian conditions.

In their letter, sent on Sunday, Blinken and Austin said they were writing “to highlight the U.S. government’s deep concern about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and to seek urgent and sustained action from your government this month to reverse this trajectory”, setting out a series of milestones that the country must meet, including allowing at least 350 aid trucks per day into Gaza.

Although not signed by Biden, the letter reflected the president’s previous efforts, according to White House aides.

“This is not an initiative that surprised the president,” Kirby told reporters Tuesday. “It’s very much in line with the communications he had with Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

This content was originally published in White House expects Israel to attack Iran before US election on the CNN Brasil website.

Source: CNN Brasil