With just over 50 days to go until the election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remain in a tight and extremely polarized race for the White House, according to opinion polls.
For Clifford Young, president of the Ipsos research institute in the US, the Democratic candidate has “energy” and is able to mobilize the party’s base, while the Republican dominates fundamentals such as the economy and inflation.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 27, 43% of registered voters prefer the former president for the economy, while 40% would choose the current vice president.
The expert considers that Kamala Harris’ campaign is being much more effective than Trump’s at the moment, considering the issue of communication.
“The main question now is about how effective campaigns are at getting their message across,” Clifford Young tells WW Special this Sunday (15).
Fernanda Magnotta, International Analyst at CNN assesses that Trump had a more favorable “climate” months ago, when the President of the United States, Joe Biden, was still in the race. For Magnotta, Kamala is a competitive agent.
This point is exemplified, according to the International Relations professor, by electoral surveys and even results mapped in betting pools.
Another highlight is the funding achieved by the vice president’s campaign.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday (12), Kamala has 47% of voting intentions among registered voters, against 42% for Trump.
“The feeling I have at this moment is that, unlike a month ago, Kamala could, in fact, be president of the United States – Biden might not have been able to be elected at that moment,” analyzes Magnotta.
Still, the expert believes that Trump is still the “favorite” candidate to win the November 5 election for three reasons. She cites the context of the country, in which the average American voter strongly rejects the current government – and of which Kamala is a part.
The second point is the thematic agenda: the economy and immigration are some of the most relevant topics in the election and in which Trump has a major role.
Fernanda Magnotta also cites a third relevant pro-Trump factor for the election, which is voter turnout, given that voting is not mandatory in the United States.
“The feeling I have is that Kamala, at this moment, is able to energize audiences that are important to her, but we are not sure if this audience is loyal enough to turn out to vote, something that Republicans, in general, are more than Democrats, and Trump supporters are perhaps more than Kamala’s base at this moment,” he ponders.
The weight of inflation for voters
Christopher Garman, executive director for the Americas at Eurasia, recalls that this year’s election campaign is focused on the cost of living for US citizens, recalling that inflation has increased following the Covid-19 pandemic.
“This is the Democrats’ great Achilles heel,” he emphasizes.
Garman points out that Kamala Harris is trying to distance herself from both Biden and Trump.
In several campaign speeches, the Democrat says she has a vision for the “future,” even though she does not directly criticize the Biden administration. Trump, in turn, tries to reinforce that she is the vice president of the current government.
Finally, the executive director of Eurasia assesses that Trump seems “emotionally shaken” by the change in his opponent’s candidacy.
Who will decide the US election?
Voting in the United States is indirect: the population votes for electoral figures – known as “delegates” – and the candidate who gets the most votes from these delegates is the winner of the election.
It is necessary to surpass the 270 delegate mark in the Electoral College to win the US presidential election.
Another extremely important point is that each state has a specific number of delegates, making victory in each region extremely important.
Clifford Young highlights that six states will be decisive for 2024, the so-called swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
The expert also warns that a small number of voters within these states can define the election: “Between 40,000 and 200,000 votes are what matter at this moment, so, [é] a ‘game of inches’.
In these states, according to Young, inflation and cost of living are the issues that matter most, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
Campaign will be decisive and Democratic candidate with another standard
Clifford Young agrees that issues such as the economy are advantageous for Trump, but considers that the candidate needs to reaffirm and demonstrate this to the American population.
“It will be the campaign that will define who will be the resident of the White House,” he notes, that is, “whoever is most efficient and can best align themselves with what the population wants.”
“Based on history and our experience with Trump, he has not been running the campaign as effectively as he has,” he points out.
Fernanda Magnotta, in turn, highlights that the former president has been working on the same strategy since 2016, in which he says he “would do everything differently and better, without clarifying these points”.
“For the first time, he is facing a Democratic candidate who does not meet the same standards of behavior that he was used to facing,” the professor ponders.
Still considering the ABC presidential debate, the expert indicates that Kamala “emulated Trump”, being sarcastic, mocking, confronting her opponent’s statements and putting him in a defensive position.
“With the transition of the Democratic campaign and the change of candidate, Trump lost the great idea that Biden is not good enough, and, on top of everything, he is old,” he comments.
Finally, he analyzes that the attempt to replace the Republican campaign motto has, to date, not been successful – the latest attempt being to classify Kamala Harris as a radical leftist.
Christopher Garman understands that the US vice president has mobilized the Democratic base in an important way and that she has more credibility in segments of the electorate that are most impacted by inflation: blacks, Hispanics and young people.
The expert states that the candidate must attack the vulnerabilities associated with inflation and, on the one hand, mobilize the Democratic base to vote, on the other.
Polarization: exposed social fracture shows its symptoms
Clifford Young analyzes that the electoral campaign amplifies polarization in the United States, as one of the focuses of the message disseminated by the parties is how bad it would be for the country if the “other side” wins.
“Trump represents an America of the past, nostalgia, and Kamala represents an America, a new country, more ethnically diverse,” he says.
The expert warns that there will be polarization and governance problems in the US after the election regardless of the winner.
Fernanda Magnotta points out that polarization will not be resolved by isolated political leadership. “We are talking about a social fracture that has been exposed for many decades and is now showing its symptoms,” she says.
“In practice, this polarization and fragmentation drives, even more so in the world of networks, figures who present themselves as the saviors of the country,” says the professor, highlighting that both the Democratic and Republican campaigns present their candidates as being a change, even though they have governed the country.
Christopher Garman comments that Eurasia, a renowned global consultancy, classifies the American election as the one with the greatest geopolitical risk in the world, given the country’s leadership position and global impact, size of the economy and geopolitical role.
He cited surveys measuring American distrust of institutions and the current dispute over “what it means to be an American.”
Thus, he highlights: “We are heading towards domestic dysfunction, difficulties in reaching resolutions, which has repercussions both inside and outside the US”.
This content was originally published in Who should win the US election? See what experts say to WW Especial on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
