The surprising scenario of the primary elections in Argentina, called PASO, with right-wing economist Javier Milei in the lead, began to reorganize itself after the first impact, according to research analyzed by CNN and experts consulted by the report.
Just over a month after the primaries, the CNN List below who is the favorite to win the general elections and who are the potential candidates for a second round.
See also — Javier Milei says that Pope Francis has an affinity with communists
Remembering primary numbers
In the primary elections, Javier Milei obtained 29.8% of the votes, followed by the Together for Change coalition, with 28% — divided between Patricia Bullrich (16.81%) and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (11.19%).
Finally, the Unión por la Patria coalition received 27.3% of the votes. It included Sergio Massa (21.43%) and Juan Grabois (5.85%).
Still, that day cannot necessarily be seen as a future result. Firstly, because internal party elections were held, and there is no guarantee that whoever voted for the losing candidate of a coalition will vote again within the same party.
According to a recent survey by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag), almost 16% of voters do not know whether they will repeat their vote and more than 2% are determined to change it.
Furthermore, the level of abstention was record high, and the historical trend is for increased participation in general elections.
Javier Milei, the favorite: consolidates his leadership and grows
There is a consensus among polls and experts: Javier Milei is the favorite to win the general elections in October, although, according to projections, he will not be able to win in the first round.
With at least 33% of voting intentions, according to Celag, the economist who defines himself as “libertarian” grows around four points in relation to his result in the primaries.
Meanwhile, Sergio Massa continues with 32.2%, and, much further behind, Bullrich has 28.1% of voting intentions.
The most recent survey by Giacobbe & Asociados shows Milei even more competitive, reaching 33.9% of intentions.
According to the director of Management & Fit, Mariel Fornoni, the electorate holds both the party in power and the previous government responsible for the country’s current situation and leaves La Libertad Avanza’s candidate in a position of comfort.
Patricia Bullrich, leader of Together for Change, gets complicated
According to Celag’s projection, which places Patricia Bullrich in third place, with 28% of the votes, the candidate is the one who lost the most after the primaries. The data coincides with the opinion of analysts.
“It was expected, even before the primaries, that Cambiemos would have difficulty in retaining the vote among its candidates, because the differences they expressed every month before that election meant that voters did not identify with each other, added to the electoral result that it was not viewed favorably”, says Federico Aurelio, president of the Aresco-Julio Aurelio consultancy.
Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, maintains the same line: “The one who suffers most from the vote drain is Juntos por el Cambio”, he states.
“Having fallen below expectations is always a problem, in addition to losing the position of being the opposition force with the most votes”, he adds.
But Giacobbe’s research presents an opportunity for the PRO leader. In this survey, Bullrich prevails over Massa, although with a difference that leaves them in a technical tie: 27.8% against 27.4%, respectively.
“Milei and Peronism manage to retain their voters. Bullrich also has his, but Larreta’s cost him a little more, although he is improving,” says Aurélio.
Second round scenario between Milei and Massa
According to Celag’s survey, the second round today would be between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa.
Giacobbe’s projection leaves the dispute open: Milei is guaranteed in the second round, but, with a difference of just 0.4 percentage points, second place does not seem guaranteed.
Analysts consulted by CNN Fornoni, Nejamkis and Aurelio lean towards the first scenario, albeit with a paradox: Massa has a better chance of entering the second round, but Bullrich has a better chance of beating him.
But there is still a long way to go. This Sunday (1st) the first presidential debate will take place, which will certainly shake up the scene again.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
