Who’s Putin’s circle – Who has a say in decisions?

Vladimir Putin is building a lonely figure, leading the Russian army into a high-risk war that threatens to dismantle his country’s economy. Rarely did he appear more isolated than in two recent appearances with his close circle, in which he sat at a great distance from his closest advisers, according to the BBC.

As commander-in-chief, the ultimate responsibility for the invasion rests with him, but he has always relied on a deeply loyal environment, many of whom also began their careers in Russia’s security services. The question is who is listening, in this most fatal moment of his presidency.

Sergei Shoigu – Minister of Defense

If anyone listens unreservedly, it is the longtime confidant Sergei Shoigu, who has “parroted” Putin’s line to demilitarize Ukraine and protect Russia from the so-called Western military threat.

This is a man who goes hunting and fishing trips with the president in Siberia, and in the past he was considered a possible successor.

He was attributed to the military occupation of Crimea in 2014. He was also in charge of the GRU military intelligence service, accused of two nerve agent poisonings – the 2018 deadly attack in Salisbury in the UK and the near-fatal attack on opposition leader Navel Siberia in 2020.

Valery Gerasimov – Chief of General Staff of the Army

As chief of staff, it was his job to invade Ukraine and get the job done quickly, and by that criterion it is considered insufficient.

He has played a key role in Vladimir Putin’s military campaigns since commanding an army in the Chechen war in 1999 and has been at the forefront of military planning for Ukraine, overseeing military exercises in Belarus last month.

General Gerasimov, described as “smug and heavy” by Russian expert Mark Gale, also played a key role in the military campaign for the annexation of Crimea.

Some reports suggest he has been sidelined by the “numb” start of the invasion of Ukraine and reports of morale among the troops.

Nikolai Patrushev – Secretary of the Security Council

“Patrushev believes that the West has been trying to conquer Russia for years,” said Ben Noble, an associate professor of Russian politics at University College London.

He is one of three Putin loyalists who have served with him in St. Petersburg since the 1970s, when Russia’s second city was still known as Leningrad.

The other two strongmen are the head of the security service Alexander Bortnikov and the head of the foreign intelligence services Sergei Naryshkin. All the close circles of the president are known as siloviki, or enforcers, but this trinity is even closer.

Few have as much influence over the president as Nikolai Patrushev. Not only did he work with him in the old KGB during the communist era, but he replaced him as head of the organization, the FSB, from 1999 to 2008.

Alexander Bortnikov – Commander of the FSB

Kremlin observers say Putin trusts the intelligence service more than any other source, and Alexander Bortnikov is considered part of Putin’s inner circle.

Another former KGB operative took over the leadership of the FSB when Nikolai Patrushev resigned.

The FSB has significant influence over other law enforcement agencies and even has its own special forces.

He is important, but he is not there to challenge the Russian leader or give advice in the same way as others, Andrei Soldatov believes.

Sergei Naryshkin – Commander of the SVR

Completing the trio of Leningrad’s old comrades, Sergei Naryshkin remained with Putin for much of his career.

He became widely known when Putin appeared to mock and publicly dismiss him at a recent meeting. When asked about his assessment of the situation, the intelligence chief was shocked and confused, but the president told him: “This is not what we are talking about.”

The lengthy session had already been recorded and so the Kremlin had clearly decided to show its discomfort in front of a large television audience.

“It was shocking. He was incredibly cool and collected, so people reasonably asked what was going on,” Ben Noble told the BBC. Mark Galeotti was impressed by the toxic atmosphere of the whole occasion. But Andrei Soldatov believes he was just enjoying the moment: “Putin loves to play games with his inner circle, making Naryshkin look silly.”

Sergei Naryshkin was close to Putin in St. Petersburg in the 1990s, then to Putin’s office in 2004, and eventually became speaker of parliament. But he is also the head of the Russian Historical Society and, in Soldatov’s view, has proved very important in providing the president with ideological underpinnings for his actions.

Last year, he gave an interview to the BBC correspondent in Moscow, Steve Rosenberg, in which he denied that Russia had carried out poisonings and attacks in cyberspace or that it had interfered in the elections of other countries.

Sergei Lavrov – Minister of Foreign Affairs

For 18 years he has been Russia’s highest-ranking diplomat, representing Russia in the world, even though he is not considered to have a major role in decision-making.

Sergei Lavrov, 71, is further evidence that Vladimir Putin relies heavily on evidence from his past.

He is a cunning manipulator: Last month he tried to ridicule British Foreign Secretary Liz Tras for her knowledge of Russian geography and last year he tried to humiliate EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

Valentina Matvigenko – Speaker of the Upper House

A rare female figure in Putin’s inner circle oversaw the upper house vote, which sealed the development of Russian forces abroad, paving the way for an invasion.

Matviyenko is another loyal follower of Putin from St. Petersburg who also helped annex Crimea in 2014.

But he is not considered to be the primary decision maker. Few people, after all, can say with absolute certainty who is the one who makes the big decisions.

Like any other member of Russia’s security council, its role was to give the impression of a collective debate when it was more than likely that the Russian leader had already decided.

Viktor Zolotov – Commander of the National Guard

A former bodyguard to the president, he now heads the Russian National Guard, Rosgvardia, formed by Putin just six years ago as a kind of Roman Empire-style personnel army.

By choosing his personal bodyguard to handle it, he asserted his allegiance, and Viktor Zolotov increased its number to 400,000.

Vera Mironova believes that Russia’s original plan was to complete the invasion within days, and when the army appeared to be failing, the Russian National Guard took the lead.

The problem is that the National Guard leader has no military training, and since his force does not have tanks, they were vulnerable to attacks.

Who else is Putin listening to?

Prime Minister Michael Misoustin has a duty to save the economy, but his view on the war has little weight.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and the head of Rosneft’s state oil giant Igor Setsin are also close to the president, according to political analyst Yevgeny Minichenko.

Billionaire brothers Boris and Arkandi Rotenberg, who were childhood friends of the president, have also been close confidants for some time. In 2020, Forbes magazine named them the richest family in Russia.