Why does Nancy Pelosi’s possible trip to Taiwan fuel tensions between the US and China?

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan has resulted in stern warnings from Beijing and mounting concerns in Washington.

While the California Democrat has so far declined to publicly confirm the trip, she has invited Democrats and Republicans to join her.

China attacked the possible visit, vowing to take “resolute and forceful action” if the trip goes ahead. This week, China’s Defense Ministry reiterated the threat, warning: “If the US insists on following its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by.”

US officials are concerned that the reported visit will be met with a military response from China, potentially triggering the worst cross-strait crisis in decades.

The tensions provided the backdrop for a lengthy phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, in which Xi warned the U.S. not to “play with fire” on the Taiwan issue. — although neither side has confirmed whether Pelosi’s reported plans have been discussed. The preparation for the call preceded the reports of the possible trip.

Why is Beijing angry about Pelosi’s possible visit?

The Communist Party of China claims Taiwan’s self-governing democracy as its own territory – despite never having ruled it – and has not ruled out using force to “reunify” the island with the Chinese mainland.

For decades, Beijing has sought to isolate Taipei on the world stage, from chipping away at its diplomatic allies to preventing it from joining international organizations.

Any move that appears to give Taiwan a sense of international legitimacy is strongly opposed by China. And in Beijing’s eyes, high-profile visits abroad by Taiwanese officials or visits by foreign officials to Taiwan will do just that.

In 1995, a visit by then-President of Taiwan Lee Teng-hui to the United States triggered a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Infuriated by the trip, China fired missiles into the waters around Taiwan, and the crisis only ended after the US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the area in a strong show of support for Taipei.

In recent years, Taiwan has received a flurry of visits from US delegations, made up of incumbent and retired officials and legislators. This drew angry responses from China, including sending warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone.

But Pelosi’s political stature makes her potential visit to Beijing all the more provocative.

“Pelosi is the third civil servant in the line of succession after the president and vice president, and I think the Chinese take that very seriously,” said Susan L. Shirk, president of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego.

“So she is a very important figure in American politics. She is different from your average member of Congress.”

Pelosi is a longtime critic of the Chinese Communist Party. She denounced Beijing’s human rights record and met with pro-democracy dissidents and the Dalai Lama — the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader who remains a thorn in the Chinese government’s side.

In 1991, Pelosi held up a banner at Tiananmen Square in Beijing to honor the victims of the 1989 massacre of pro-democracy protesters. More recently, she has expressed support for the 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

Why is the potential trip fueling US-China tensions?

Beijing warned that Pelosi’s trip, if it materializes, will have “a severe negative impact on the political foundations of China-US relations.”

The US formally switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 – but it has long tread a delicate middle ground. Washington recognizes the People’s Republic of China as China’s only legitimate government, but maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan.

The US also provides defensive weaponry to Taiwan under the decades-old Taiwan Relations Act, but remains deliberately vague about whether it would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion – a policy known as “strategic ambiguity”.

China’s authoritarian turn under Xi and the decline in relations with Washington have brought Taiwan closer to the US orbit. This infuriated Beijing, which accused Washington of “playing Taiwan’s card” to stem China’s rise.

Meanwhile, the US has intensified its involvement with Taiwan, approving the sale of arms and sending delegations to the island.

Since the Taiwan Travel Act was signed into law by then-U.S. President Donald Trump in March 2018, U.S. officials and lawmakers have embarked on more than 20 trips to the island, according to a count. CNN . The 2018 law encourages visits between US and Taiwanese employees at all levels.

Taiwan figured prominently in Xi and Biden’s two-hour, 17-minute phone call, with the Chinese leader urging Washington to honor existing agreements with Beijing “in word and deed,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry reading.

The statement added that China would “resolutely safeguard” its national sovereignty.

For his part, Biden reiterated that US policy “has not changed,” according to a White House reading of the call.

“The United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Biden said, according to the statement.

Has a US House Speaker ever visited Taiwan?

Pelosi’s reported trip would not be the first time a US House Speaker has visited Taiwan.

In 1997, Newt Gingrich visited Taipei a few days after his trip to Beijing and Shanghai. China’s Foreign Ministry criticized Gingrich after his visit to Taiwan, but the response was limited to rhetoric.

Beijing indicated that things would be different this time around.

Twenty-five years later, China is stronger, more powerful and confident, and its leader Xi has made it clear that Beijing will no longer tolerate any disrespect or challenge to its interests.

“China is in a position to be more assertive, to impose costs and consequences on countries that do not consider China’s interest in their policies or actions,” said Drew Thompson, visiting senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore.

And what about the time?

Pelosi’s visit would also come at a sensitive time for China.

The House Speaker had previously planned to lead a US Congressional delegation to Taiwan in April, but postponed the trip after testing positive for Covid-19.

The Chinese military is celebrating its founding anniversary on Aug. 1, while Xi, the country’s most powerful leader in decades, is preparing to break convention and seek a third term at the 20th Communist Party congress this fall.

In August, Chinese leaders are also due to meet in the resort town of Beidaihe for their annual summer conclave, where they will discuss personnel movements and political ideas behind closed doors.

“It’s a very tense moment in Chinese domestic politics,” Shirk said. “(Xi) himself and many other elite members in China would see Pelosi’s visit as a humiliation of Xi Jinping (and) his leadership. And that means he will feel compelled to react in a way that demonstrates his strength.”

While the politically sensitive moment could trigger a stronger response from Beijing, some experts believe it could also mean that the Communist Party would like to ensure stability and prevent things from spiraling out of control.

“Honestly, this is not a good time for Xi Jinping to provoke a military conflict right before the 20th party congress. It is in Xi Jinping’s interest to manage this rationally and not instigate a crisis on top of all the other crises he has to deal with. com,” Thompson said, citing China’s slowing economy, deepening housing crisis, rising unemployment and the constant struggle to contain sporadic outbreaks under its Covid zero policy.

How will China react?

China did not specify what “force measures” it plans to take, but some Chinese analysts say Beijing’s reaction could involve a military component.

“China will respond with unprecedented countermeasures – the strongest it has taken since the Taiwan Strait crisis,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at China’s Renmin University.

In particular, Biden administration officials have expressed concern that China may try to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan to reverse possible travel, a US official told CNN .

National security officials are working quietly to convince Pelosi of the risks her potential trip to Taiwan could pose, while the Pentagon is developing a security plan to use ships and aircraft to keep her safe should she decide to go ahead.

But the ongoing concern among US officials is that miscalculations or inadvertent incidents or accidents could occur if China and the US significantly increase their air and sea operations in the region.

The US does not expect direct hostile action from Beijing during a possible visit by Pelosi. At least five defense officials described this as a very remote possibility and said the Pentagon wants to see public rhetoric toned down.

What did Taiwan say about Pelosi’s possible trip?

Taiwan made few comments on the situation. When Pelosi’s potential visit was first reported by the Financial Times last week, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it had “not received any information” about the visit.

During a regular press conference on Thursday, a ministry spokeswoman reiterated that she had not received any definitive information on whether Pelosi would visit the island and had “no further comment” on the matter.

“Inviting members of the US Congress to visit Taiwan has been a focus of the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and our Taipei Economic and Cultural Representation Office in the United States,” said spokeswoman Joanne Ou.

Neither President Tsai Ing-wen nor the presidential office has issued statements about Pelosi’s possible trip.

On Wednesday, Taiwan’s Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang said the island welcomes all friendly guests from abroad. “We are very grateful to Speaker Pelosi for her strong support and kindness towards Taiwan over the years,” he said.

While international media has been closely following the events, the rising tension barely made headlines in Taiwan this week. Taiwanese media mainly focused on the upcoming local elections and Taiwanese military exercises.

Earlier, Taiwanese officials publicly welcomed visits by US delegations, seeing them as a sign of support from Washington.