Why Donald Trump should expect high voter turnout

Republican Donald Trump is in a better position against Democrat Joe Biden now than at any time during the entire 2020 campaign. The former president leads against the current president in more than his fair share of recorded election polls, including several decisive states.

But it seems plausible that these initial polls could be underestimating Biden's position. In a change from the usual expected dynamics, in which Democrats are expected to perform better with higher turnout, Biden could benefit when polls look at likely voters rather than all registered voters.

Put another way, Trump may do better in an election where turnout is higher.

But it seems plausible that these initial polls could be underestimating Biden's position. In a change from the usual expected dynamics, in which Democrats are expected to perform better with higher turnout, Biden could benefit when polls look at likely voters rather than all registered voters.

In other words, Trump may do better in an election where participation is higher.

Take a look at a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month. Trump had a 2-point lead among registered voters. Biden rose 2 points among likely voters. Both are within the margin of error, but it's a notable 4-point shift toward Biden when comparing likely and registered voters.

Now, I don't want to make too much of one research, but another researcher found something analogous. The average of the last two Marquette University Law School polls showed the former president up 4 points among registered voters, while Biden and Trump were tied among likely voters. As with the Times data, this is a 4-point shift toward Biden when going from registered voters to likely voters.

An October Grinnell College poll conducted by Ann Selzer similarly found that 2020 Biden voters were 4 points more likely to say they would definitely vote than Trump voters.

This would be a big change from what has been seen historically. Typically, Republicans gain about 2 points when they go from registered voters to likely voters.

It's possible, of course, that recent polling data is just statistical noise.

The 2024 elections make sense, however, in the context of both the recent elections and the coalitions being formed by Biden and Trump ahead of a potential rematch.

Democrats liked to point out that they did very well in last year's special election. In fact, Democratic candidates are running about 4 points better in state and federal legislative elections in 2023 than Biden did in those same districts in 2020.

These special elections, however, typically have lower turnout. Compare these special elections to Virginia's regular state legislative elections held in early November. Control of the state's lower house (Chamber of Deputies) and upper house (State Senate) was at stake. And although Democrats won control of both, Virginia is also a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020.

Democrats beat Republicans by less than 2 points in the popular vote in both houses. That's more than 8 points worse than what Biden did in Virginia in 2020.

Similarly, Republicans won the House popular vote by about 3 points in the 2022 midterm elections. A 6-point change from the House popular vote in 2020, when Democrats won by about 3 points. Midterm elections have much higher turnout than special elections.

So why are Republicans better off when turnout is higher?

From an issues standpoint, many Democrats are still very upset about Roe V. Wade being overturned in 2022. It was from this point forward that we really saw Democrats outperform in special elections.

This may be why there is evidence to suggest that Biden voters are more likely to turn out than Trump voters in today's era, even when taking demographics into account.

Speaking of demographics, we have seen major changes in political alliances in recent years.

The most obvious is that the Democratic base depends more than ever on college-educated voters. Turnout and education are highly correlated, in that more educated voters are more likely to turn out.

When analysts talk about education being a dividing line in the electorate, we usually focus specifically on white voters. Something that may be happening in this cycle is making the educational gap even bigger.

First, Trump is doing better among black and Hispanic voters than he did four years ago. As a group, these voters are less likely to have a college degree than white voters.

Second, Trump is doing better among black voters without a college degree than among those with a college degree. Meanwhile, Biden maintains his strength among white voters with college degrees.

These factors combined are widening the education gap and causing Trump to perform better among voters who are less likely to turn out as a group.

The other demographic shift at play is that there have been a series of polls in which Trump is performing disproportionately better among young voters than he did four years ago. Younger voters are less likely to turn out than older voters across all demographic groups, so Biden may be better off swapping younger voters for older voters from a turnout standpoint.

The bottom line is that we still don't know much about what 2024 will look like. But if what we're seeing now in the polls holds true by next November, then many traditional theories about how turnout could impact elections could be wrong.

It's just one more thing to keep an eye on as we enter what is sure to be a turbulent 2024.