Since the beginning of 2025, experts and analysts have promised the altcoin season many times, but it has not come. We understand the reasons that inhibit the growth of altcoins and prevent investors from switching from bitcoin to other coins.
What holds the altcoin season in 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) leads in the current cryptocycle, and its dominance in the market continues to grow. In May, his share reached 65.3 %, which is the highest rate since 2021. In the middle of the month, the Bitcoin domination (BTC.D) decreased for a short while, but then quickly recovered and at the time of publication reached 63.9 %.
At the same time, the BTC price increased significantly, reaching a maximum of $ 111,800 last month. Historically, the altcoin season begins after the bitcoin rally when capital flows into smaller coins. However, this time only single altcoins grew up, and the altcoin season index (Coinglass) at the time of publication was only 16.
Meanwhile, Arthur Hais believes that the altcoin season will begin this summer.
Willy Chuang, the co -founder of Truenorth, explained why the overcoming of capital had not yet begun. He noted that institutional investors mainly support the current bitcoin rally, and their interest in altcoins remains low.
He also noted that the memcoirs showed good results, but many investors now consider the traditional model of altcoins structurally weak due to its high centralization and risks associated with projects of projects.
Gustavo H., Senior Business Development Specialist in Kairon Labs, I agree with this opinion. He noted that the growth of bitcoin is primarily associated with the influx of institutional investments and the more clear regulation of spotal ETFs.
Gustavo explained that ETF trading volumes direct liquidity to bitcoin, increasing its share in the market and reducing the liquidity of altcoins. This leads to an increase in spreads between the price of demand and the price of the offer, which makes large investments in small assets less attractive and further strengthens the dominant position of bitcoin.
Both experts also noted a sharp increase in the number of new tokens. Chuang emphasized that this divorces capital and disperses the attention of investors.
Why is the 2025 altcoin season still real
Despite all the circumstances, experts are sure that Altcoins still have a chance for a successful season.
He believes that the current Bitcoin trend will probably remain in the near future. However, altcoins can revive after the completion of the quantitative tightening cycle (QT) and the beginning of the new quantitative softening cycle (QE).
Gustavo believes that in the end the market will reward the teams that really found their place. In addition, he confirmed that as soon as the demand for ETF stabilizes, and the volatility of bitcoin will decrease, capital will flow into more risky assets.
Tracy Gene, the main operating director of MexC, noted that the first signs of this process have already appeared. An increase in the number of applications for Altcoin-ETF, as well as the fashion for the Altcoin-Belief Strategies among corporations indicate a growing institutional interest in alternative coins.
MexC chief operating director noted that for a real altsyzone, it is necessary that the Bitcoin domination falls more. Despite the current restoration of interest in risk, Bitcoin still occupies a large market share.
Jin notes that when bitcoin is consolidated at high levels, altcoins have a chance. Bitcoin lasts above $ 100,000 for 25 days in a row, and this suggests that the real season of altcoin is no longer around the corner.
Key conclusions: Altcoin season in 2025
- Bitcoin’s dominance reached 63.9% With a historical maximum, prices are $ 111,800, which restrains the growth of altcoins – the altsyzon index is only 16 points.
- Institutional investors prefer bitcoin As a “safe bet”, and spotes ETF delay liquidity from altcoins, enhancing the dominance of BTC in the market.
- The first signs of capital renewal have already appeared: ETF on Ethereum attracted more than $ 630 million in 11 days, while ETF Bitcoin lost $ 1.2 billion in three days.
- Experts believe that the altcoin season is not canceled, but only delay – It can begin after stabilizing bitcoin and the completion of the quantitative tightening cycle (QT).
- Key difference from previous cycles: For the first time in the potential season of altcoin, significant institutional capital can participate, which can strengthen the market movement.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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