“During the past year, Mr Vladimir Putin has demonstrated its ability to wreak havoc on European energy prices through a combination of threats and supply cuts,” writes the Politico. Which hurts energy-hungry industries and leads to costly government interventions to help consumers pay their energy bills.
But in recent weeks, Putin’s power to influence prices appears to have waned as markets muted the Kremlin’s statements, the report continued.
That may change as temperatures begin to drop. How the next phase of the energy war plays out depends largely on something that no politician can control – the weather.
“If we’re lucky, we’ll have a chance to get through the winter comfortably,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said last week. A very cold winter could cause explosive political upheaval over the cost of living and Europe’s support for Ukraine, especially if Europeans suffer from blackouts and factory shutdowns. Analysts predict a mild winter will allow European leaders to say they faced down Putin’s instrumentalization of natural gas and won.
So far, European diplomats believe the preparations will prevent the nightmare scenario of rolling blackouts.
Gas storage across the EU is already 86% full, well ahead of the target of 80% by November. A European diplomat estimates that even if Putin cuts off the remaining 9% of EU gas coming from Russia, up from 40%, Europe could avoid blackouts.
If this winter is in line with the five-year average, analysts at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie predict that the Europe she could make do with a little more than a quarter of her remaining storage capacity. If Russia cuts off all supplies, the EU should expect to have around 15% of gas left in storage by the end of winter.
“How quickly the EU can return to safe gas storage levels in 2023 will also partly depend on how much gas is left over from the winter. And that, like so much else right now, depends on the weather,” Politico concludes.
Source: News Beast
I’m Robert Neff, a professional writer and editor. I specialize in the entertainment section, providing up-to-date coverage on the latest developments in film, television and music. My work has been featured on World Stock Market and other prominent publications.
