Why there is conflict in Eastern Ukraine and what is Putin’s ultimate goal

Russian President Vladimir Putin is at the center of international interest as he has ordered Russian troops to enter two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine after first recognizing them as independent states.

According to CNBC, Western officials and analysts refute Putin’s claim that they are “peaceful forces”, arguing that this decision of the Russian president may be a harbinger of a wider invasion of Ukraine.

Political analysts predict that Russia could make such a move, while clashes in Donbas between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian troops are nothing new.

So what is happening in eastern Ukraine and why does it matter?

Eastern Ukraine

While there are growing fears of a possible military conflict in eastern Ukraine, the region has in fact been a point of war between Ukraine and pro-Russians for some time.

Immediately after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, pro-Russian separatists declared two “democracies” in eastern Ukraine. The “Donetsk People’s Republic” and the “Luhansk People’s Republic”, to the great disappointment of the Ukrainian government.

Since then, there have been ongoing tensions and fighting in the area, known as Donbass, between Ukrainian troops and separatists.

Germany and France have sought to mediate peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine, known as the “Minsk Agreements”. Despite the fact that fighting in Donbas sometimes stops due to a ceasefire, both Ukraine and Russia are accused of violating the terms of the agreements and the fighting starts again.

The armed conflict in Donbas, often referred to as the “war”, already has high human costs, as 13,000 to 14,000 people are believed to have been killed in these battles, but an accurate estimate of the death toll is difficult to estimate due to the nature of the conflict. in the area.

What is Russia doing?

Russia has repeatedly denied providing support to separatists in eastern Ukraine, but has been accused of supplying military equipment to rebels in a bid to undermine Ukrainian government, sovereignty and political stability.

Following the annexation of Crimea, which sparked international sanctions against Moscow, Western officials feared that Putin’s possible goal was to invade more parts of Ukraine and establish a pro-Russian regime in Kiev.

The Kremlin, for its part, has repeatedly denied plans to invade Ukraine, but the deployment of more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine has heightened concerns about a possible Russian invasion of the country.

Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk “democracies” in eastern Ukraine on Monday formalized Moscow’s support for the Donbas rebels, but has already “mixed in” the region by offering Russian passports and citizenship to its residents.

Political analysts saw the move in 2019 as a cynical harbinger of an invasion, because if Russia chose to invade, it could say it was only doing so to “protect” its citizens from Ukraine. Russian state media have already focused on Donbass residents fleeing the area in recent days, claiming it was due to bombings by the Ukrainian army.

In an indication that Russia was pursuing such a strategy, Putin on Tuesday justified the order to send troops to eastern Ukraine, saying that Russia’s recognition of the “democracies” was dictated precisely by the fact that the Ukrainian leadership had publicly stated that it did not is going to abide by the Minsk agreements. ”

“What else is there to wait for?” he said. Asked if Russia recognizes only the borders of self-proclaimed democracies or beyond, including the wider Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Putin said: “As for the borders within which we will recognize these democracies, we have recognized them. “which means that we have recognized their founding documents, including the Constitution, and the Constitution defines their borders within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time they were part of Ukraine.”

What does Putin want?

In essence, the battle for Ukraine is a battle for influence and power. The Ukrainian government, now led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has turned to the West in recent years, aspiring to join the EU and NATO and move away from Russia’s post-Soviet sphere of influence.

Putin, meanwhile, has called the break-up of the Soviet Union a disaster and, during his 22-year rule in Russia, has sought to rebuild Russia’s power base and sphere of influence in former Soviet states such as Belarus and Georgia. and Ukraine.

Putin has often praised the historic unity of Russia and Ukraine, and did so again on Monday when he ordered troops to be sent to Donbass.

Ukraine’s turn to the West bothers Moscow because it does not want to see NATO or the EU expand eastward to integrate Ukraine, despite the fact that there is no immediate prospect of Ukraine becoming a member of either NATO or NATO. EU.

In December, Russia demanded legal guarantees that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO, but these requests were rejected. Analysts said Putin knew the demands would be rejected, but later went on to say that Russia’s security concerns were ignored, “selling” it to the Russian public through the media, most of which are pro-Putin. , because they are either controlled by the state or have ties to the government.

It is no surprise, then, that Russian state media have repeatedly accused Ukraine and the West of escalating tensions in Donbass, accusing them of spreading misinformation and ignoring Russia’s security demands.

Russia’s latest move has sparked international condemnation, with the United States, the European Union, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom announcing new sanctions against Russia, even though the country is already facing sanctions for annexing Crimea, interfering in US 2016 elections, cyber attacks, etc.

Is there a possibility of a total war?

Putin’s observers believe that Russia was expecting more sanctions this week and that Moscow has a bigger plan for Ukraine.

“Putin has been sanctioned for admitting to what we all knew anyway, that he has troops in Donetsk and Lugansk, and that he practically controls those two areas,” said Timothy Ash, a strategic analyst at BlueBay Asset Management.

“I do not understand what Putin is gaining from recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk. He is bearing the cost of supporting 3.5 million generally poor people. He is bearing the impact of sanctions. “Solution for Ukraine as a means to stop its turn to the West. And it is considered internationally as the bad guy stealing territory from other countries.”

“It really only makes sense if this is the beginning of something bigger and all this is done to provoke the Ukrainians and the West into some irrational reaction, and what I think is really happening here is that it is building the story of a total war with “Ukraine for the Russian population,” Ash said.

Mario Bikarski, a Russian analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented that Russia’s recent actions “were designed to put as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, to attract the attention of the West, to open the door to talks and to impose a settlement that will prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. ”

He added that Moscow could still wait to see if there was room for compromise with NATO.

“By recognizing the independence of Notnetsk and Lugansk, Russia has shown to the West that it is serious about preventing Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO, which Russia sees as an existential threat,” he said. “From the previous Crimean textbook, they follow a well-known pattern from other conflicts, including Georgia. The key question is whether Russia will stop here and whether the crisis has peaked or whether it could escalate further.”