Why Ukraine commits suicide demographically

By Costas Raptis

Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe after Russia. It is also the second poorest country in Europe, after Moldova, in terms of per capita income. Which probably explains why it has the most problematic demographic profile, not only in Europe but beyond.

The shrinking Ukrainian population has three sources: declining birth rates, declining life expectancy (due to environmental pollution, deteriorating care system, poor nutrition, car accidents, widespread smoking and alcohol abuse). These are trends that characterize, with fluctuations, the entire post-Soviet thirty years of Ukrainian history.

Since 1993, Ukraine’s population has shrunk by 150,000 to 350,000 each year, and in 2007 the country had the fourth fastest shrinkage rate in the world.

According to the Ukrainian National Statistical Service, births in 2020 amounted to 8.1 per thousand population and deaths to 14.7 per thousand. The rapid decline in the birth rate that the country has experienced since independence in 1991 and then began to reverse in 2001, but births (which never exceeded the number of deaths during this period) began to decline again from 2014 , year of outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in its current form.

It is estimated that there are 1.2 children for every woman, ie not only is the population not being replaced, but its reduction is no longer reversible.

The Institute of Demography of the Ukrainian Academy estimates that the actual population of the country is only 35 million and not 48 million according to the latest census. Demographers also estimate that three out of ten Ukrainian men now in their 20s will die before reaching the age of 60.

The situation is dramatically aggravated by migration. From 1991 to 2004, when the break-up of the Soviet Union forced various population movements, Ukraine saw 2.2 million people entering its territory (two million of whom came from other former Soviet republics) and 2.5 million. million (1.9 million to other Soviet republics). Since then, emigration, not always “visible”, has continued unabated, with outflows rising in 2014. In 2017 alone, 662,000 Ukrainians received visas for EU countries, mainly Poland, according to At least one million people have preferred Russia, with remittances accounting for 11% of Ukraine’s GDP.

Ukrainians leaving the country (often under the guise of studying) are not recorded in official statistics and it is not easy to say whether their choice is permanent or not.

The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine estimates that 9 million people have found work abroad, while inside the country there are only 21 million aged 20 to 55 years. In other words, the productive population lags behind, according to the census data, the non-productive.

Of course, the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the secession of Donbass (once the second most populous and per capita income after Kiev) removes even greater demographic potential from Ukrainian society and economy.

In other words, the Ukrainians are “voting on foot”, treating their country as deprived of prospects. Many more citizens had sought their fortunes elsewhere, often in Russia itself, leading one to wonder how many would eventually be left to defend whom.