Ukraine authorities accepted, on Tuesday (11), a proposal from the United States to establish a 30-day temporary ceasefire with Russia, according to a statement issued by the US government.
Following the positive sign of Ukraine, US, European authorities and US President Donald Trump himself emphasized that the “ball is now in the court of Russia” and that the implementation of ceasefire depends on the country led by Vladimir Putin.
Analysts and experts, however, have not been optimistic about the Russian response so far.
Discouraging history
Carolina Pavese, Professor of International Relations at Instituto Mauá, highlighted in an interview with CNN that the Scenario is discouraging for the perspectives of peace in the region.
Pavese recalls that previous ceasefire agreements between Russia and Ukraine, such as 2014 after the invasion of Crimea, were violated by the Russian part . Similar situation occurred in 2008, involving an agreement between Russia and Georgia.
The teacher emphasizes that a ceasefire represents only a temporary interruption of hostilities, not a definitive solution to the conflict.
However, it warns that, given the current circumstances and the history of non -compliance with agreements by Russia, reaching a final solution to the conflict seems to be a distant goal . “We may have even a time of truce, but we are far from reaching a final solution for this conflict,” concludes the expert.
“Russian reality”
Analyst Nick Paton Walsh, from CNN International also understands that, even if Russia accepts the proposal of ceasefire, it is difficult for her to be sustained .
“To maintain the illusion that he is Trump’s partner, Putin will probably accept some form of peace,” says Walsh. “It may not be an immediate ceasefire, and it can, as Russia has done before, choosing to delay its beginning to seek military goals first, particularly in the Kursk region.”
“But then the Russian reality will greet the theory of telephone diplomacy. The first argument to be tested is that one cannot trust Kremlin to get involved in significant diplomacy, as his story shows that he does it rarely, ”adds the analyst.
Walsh also believes Russia can resort to misinformation practices to accuse Ukraine to break the ceasefire and return to war.
“In the past, the Russia stood out in misinformation Maskirovka – mistake as a battlefield tactic – as well as fake flag operations, when incidents are staged to provide the impetus for retaliation, ”says Walsh. “There will be times when clashes of small weapons or drone attacks will be impossible to attribute to either side as an aggressor: where AI manipulation, or false accounts, or entirely fictitious incidents, will fill in the information space.”
“Algorithms will seek falsehoods. World leaders will fight to understand small details of those who shot who on the front line. Areas where seismic events occurred will be out of the scope of the researchers due to the violence that breaks down again, ”he continues.
“The evidence of the last decade should lead to pessimism and the mistake flowed almost entirely in one direction, ”he concludes.
Risk of rewarding Russia
Keir Giles, a senior consultant for the Russian and Eurasia program heard by Reuters, was not optimistic either. For Giles, the ceasefire “risks rewarding Russia.”
“Put into practice a consolidation of front lines in its current position without any long-term guarantee to ensure that the war will really come to an end to the risk of rewarding Russia by making the current control zone permanent and freezing the conflict instead of resolving it,” said the consultant.
With information from Reuters.
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