Yesterday the OECD, but also in recent weeks the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or numerous analysts that make up the Funcas panel, have pointed out that the Government’s economic forecasts are wrong . And that, just as it is an exceptional moment with contraction and rebound figures never seen before in recent history, the deviation in which the Executive will incur, according to these organizations, is equally historic.
What are the differences between the Government and national and international organizations and institutions?
Practically all of them. Evolution of debt, deficit, income, employment … But above all of them, probably because it is more easily quantifiable and is directly related to all of the above, highlights the growth estimate for 2021. According to the Government, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rebound slightly more than 7% in 2021, a figure that will touch 10% if the effect of European aid plans and programs is taken into account. The OECD, on the other hand, estimates that the figure will stay in the middle, just 5%, and AIReF fears that its worst scenario will materialize and the Spanish economy will only grow 3.8%.
Why is the difference so large?
According to the Government, because these estimates do not take into account the strong momentum of the European plans and, furthermore, they are outdated despite the fact that some of them, such as those of the OECD, are very recent. The key, they maintain in the Executive, is that Moncloa already has employment figures and economic evolution until December, while the same OECD, for example, closed its data weeks or even a month ago. And according to the data the Government has, the economy will not slow down as much in the fourth quarter as the organizations believe, which is precisely where the key to what will happen next year lies.
And what do the organisms say?
On the contrary, that is, after the strong rebound registered in the third quarter, the economy again paralyzed after the summer with the new restriction measures imposed to stop the second wave, and that this will make the entry rate in 2021 be very slow. So much so, that the 5% yesterday confirmed by the OECD is the worst of the two possibilities that it managed until now and that it already rules out that the country will recover the levels prior to the Covid until, at least, 2023.
Can there be positive surprises?
The Government, it is already written, maintains that it is. But beyond the Executive’s speech, the vaccine factor may be, if possible, more important for the Spanish economy and if there is something that Spain has repeatedly shown, it is that it suffers more s in crises but, also, that it reacts more positively in recoveries. The former Minister of Economy and today Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, always points out this way, and although this is actually an imbalance in the country, it may cause the rebound from the second quarter to skyrocket if there really is an effective vaccine. But even so, the differences seem huge.
What supposes that the differences are so bulky?
In addition to the fact that all the variables change significantly, there is an undoubted reputational effect on Spain’s ability to make its estimates. And that is not new either, since the country has always suffered from it, but in such an exceptional situation, the differences and the errors are equally so.
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