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Will Tigray be the tomb of Ethiopia?

Tigray is one of the ten states of the Federation of Ethiopia. It covers an area of ​​around 50,000 km2, or 4.5% of Ethiopian territory, sharing borders with Eritrea and the Republic of South Sudan. Since the end of the summer of 2020, relations between the authorities of the province of Tigray and the government of Addis Ababa have deteriorated sharply, to the point of causing violent armed clashes which have so far claimed several thousand victims. in a region already hard hit in the past.

In this photo taken on November 25, 2020, an Ethiopian soldier shows bullet holes fired during the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (TPLF) attack on November 3, 2020 against the 5th Battalion of the Army’s North Command Ethiopian in Dansha, Ethiopia. © Eduardo Soteras / AFP

An old conflict

The current conflict has deep roots. The Tigrayans are the descendants of populations of Cushitic languages ​​which gradually united with populations originating in the Arabian Peninsula. The province of Tigray now has about 6 million inhabitants out of the country’s 113 million, mainly Tigrayans of the Christian faith, who consider themselves to be the heirs of the kingdom of Aksum, established in these highlands of Abyssinia (a term fallen into disuse which designated the current northern part of Ethiopia), and which is distinguished by its longevity (from IVe century BC to the 10the century). At IVe century, under the authority of King Ezana, the subjects of the kingdom converted to Christianity. It was also during his reign that the first church of Sainte-Marie-de-Sion was built in Aksum, a building which was repeatedly demolished and then rebuilt. In an adjacent chapel would rest the Ark of the Covenant.

Chapel of the Tablet, which would house the Ark of the Covenant. © Photo by the author. Author provided

The Tigrayan minority was gradually marginalized after the reign of the last emperor of Tigrayan origin, Yohannes IV (1872-1889). After him, Ménélik II (1889-1913) then Hailé Sélassié (1930-1974), both anxious to build a modern administration, will rely mainly on the Amhara people (nearly a quarter of the inhabitants of present-day Ethiopia) . This feeling of abandonment led the nobility of Tigray to see in the Italian occupation (1935-1941) the opportunity to regain part of its prestige and a large administrative autonomy. When Britain put an end to the Italian occupation, it responded to Hailé Selassie’s call to suppress the latent independence of the Tigrayans (1943).

Obelisks of Axum. © Author’s photo

In the 1960s, several movements founded on the initiative of young graduates were formed to claim the autonomy of the province of Tigray, the two main ones being the Tigray Liberation Front (TLF) and the Tigray People’s Progressive Association (TPPA). ). In 1974, they participated in the overthrow of the monarchy, an institution deemed obsolete and oppressive. Disappointed by the new military regime (the Provisional Military Government of Socialist Ethiopia or, in more simplified form, the Derg) and hostile to Marxist-inspired land reform projects, supporters of Tigray’s self-determination founded the Tigray in 1975 the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (FLPT), while remaining ambiguous as to the goal pursued: did they want secession or “only” broad autonomy within Ethiopia?

The FPLT in opposition then in power

In any case, for nearly fifteen years, the FLPT fought the Mengistu regime (1977-1991), sealing an alliance with other insurrectionary movements such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Eritrea (See François Lafargue, “Promesses et Ethiopia’s weaknesses ”, Diplomacy Magazine, June-July 2020). In 1989, a coalition of several opposition movements initiated by the FLPT was formed. Called the Revolutionary Democratic Front of the Ethiopian People (FDRPE), it succeeded in seizing power in Addis Ababa in May 1991 and forcing Mengistu into exile in Zimbabwe. Its main founder, Meles Zenawi, then became Prime Minister (1995-2012).

However, within this electoral coalition (the FDRPE was made up of four parties: the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray, the Amhara National Democratic Movement, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization and the People’s Democratic Movement of Ethiopia of South), the FLPT remained the first among equals.

After the death of Meles Zenawi, the Tigrayan minority, very present in the economy and the security apparatus – from 1991 to 2018, the post of Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Army has always been entrusted to a Tigrayan, like many sovereign ministerial posts; WHO President Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is also a Tigrayan – has seen his role diminish as protest movements have grown against an increasingly authoritarian regime. NGOs, such as Human Rights Watch, have denounced the frequent use of arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings. The FDRPE was only able to stay in power thanks to massive fraud during the various legislative elections (in 2015, it still obtained all the seats in the House of People’s Representatives, the National Assembly).

The activist and journalist Jawar Mohammed claimed to channel this protest by presenting himself as the main opponent of the regime in place. Born in Ethiopia in 1986, Jawar Mohammed lived for many years in the United States, where he became a citizen, to found the press group Oromia Media Network. He did not cease, for ten years, to denounce the violations of public freedoms committed by the Ethiopian government, and he was one of the organizers of the demonstrations which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-2018) , who will be replaced by the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

How the situation got worse

In November 2019, Abiy Ahmed, aware of the discredit of the FDRPE, created a new formation, The Prosperity Party, which wants to be more unitary, open to all the nations of the country (by associating several electoral formations) and above all more democratic. But the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray refuses to join this alliance, which accentuated the erasure of the Tigrayan minority on the political scene. The arrests of several senior officials of Tigrayan origin accused of corruption, such as Kinfe Dagnew (in November 2018) who headed the conglomerate Metals and Engineering Corporation, or their sidelining, such as Samora Yunis, the chief of staff of the army, accentuate this rupture between the FLPT and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The war between the central government and the Tigray region is a tragedy for civilians in the midst of the fighting. © ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP

The election of deputies to the House of People’s Representatives, scheduled for March 2020, has been postponed sine die, because of the coronavirus epidemic. The Prime Minister of the province of Tigray, Debretsion Gebremichael, saw this as a delaying maneuver because this sixth legislative ballot since the adoption of the new Constitution in 1994 – and which should in fine to be held in early summer 2021 – remains very uncertain for those in power. The expected weakening of Abiy Ahmed would no doubt have allowed the Tigrayans to return to the political scene.

The Tigray authorities organized their own parliamentary elections in September 2020, then threatened to apply Article 39 of Ethiopia’s Constitution which recognizes the provinces’ right to secession. The current generation of leaders of the FPLT believe that they have not obtained the place that should have been given to them by the long and painful struggle waged against the Mengistu regime. The Tigray region, despite massive investments made over the past thirty years, remains very poor (85% of the population is rural), penalized by the lack of road infrastructure, and by its steep relief, since the towns of Mekele like Axum are located at 2,100 m above sea level.

The personal rivalries between Debretsion Gebremichael and Abiy Ahmed are not to be minimized, since the former hoped to become Prime Minister, but his personality as well as his former functions, in particular as Minister of Communications and Information (2012-2018), have undoubtedly weighed against him, since he is accused of having wiretapped many political rivals.

What scenarios for tomorrow: crushing Tigray or partition of the country?

We can seriously consider two scenarios:

  • The violent military response of the federal government makes it possible to put an end to separatist tendencies and, and refuse to willingly, Abiy Ahmed is initiating a process of reconciliation with the Tigrayan minority, allowing him to ease political tensions. The next legislative election validates this policy of appeasement and the authority of the Prime Minister comes out reinforced.
  • Ethiopia sinks into a process of partition, faced with a Tigrayan people determined to fight, which in the past has demonstrated its determination and which encourages other minorities like the Oromos to imitate them in their demands for sovereignty. Jawar Mohammed, who had nevertheless helped Abiy Ahmed in the first months of his political action, was arrested in July 2020, and remains imprisoned to this day, accused of terrorist acts. He is accused of having made seditious speeches (since he threatens to support the secession of the Oromiya) and of having launched calls for violence by relying on a youth movement, the Qeerros.

Foreign donors (especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which were the architects of the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea) as well as the international community as a whole, will they allow a country long considered a model to sink? development in Africa?

After the independence of Eritrea (1993), then of the Republic of South Sudan (2011), the concern about these separatist speeches is legitimate. In March 1896, during the battle of Adoua, a city 25 km northeast of Axum, the Empire of Ethiopia had held in check the army of the Kingdom of Italy. Over a century later, Ethiopia’s fate is still playing out in Tigray

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