Winter, Putin’s crucial ally in coming months – All eyes on forecasts

As fighting rages in UkraineEuropeans are preparing to face a precarious and uncontrollable adversary: ​​winter, whose arrival is accompanied by threats of energy rationing and power outages.

It is certain that a harsh and prolonged winter would be Putin’s ally, according to some analysts. The Russian president systematically manipulates the weapon of energy by opening and closing the gas tap at will. This is in retaliation for Western support for Kyiv, some argue. But the Kremlin had already started this game many months before Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In recent years, western Europe has experienced extremely harsh winters, such as in 2010-2011, as well as a Siberian cold snap in 2018, with dozens of deaths and transport disruption.

If this happens again, at a time when there is a shortage of Russian natural gas and given that some European countries have made themselves highly dependent on the Kremlin’s energy supplies, it could cause great difficulties and consequently reduce the European Union’s resolve to support of Ukraine.

Equipped with supercomputers capable of combining data from several national meteorological services, the European agency, through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), produces rolling quarterly forecasts.

“This year, the issue is of great geopolitical interest,” says director Carlo Buodembo as the publication of the November-January forecast approaches tomorrow.

Although it is still too early for completely reliable forecasts, early evidence points to a generally mild winter, with a chance of early cold spells in November and December.

The direction of the winds

“What matters is the direction of the wind. If, from mid-November to December, there are some of these strong winds coming from the east and snow in Europe, this is sure to have an impact on gas demand, prices and geopolitics,” explains Carlo Buodembo .

Conversely, after a summer marked by record high temperatures, the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than usual and the westerly wind phases can keep temperatures mild.

In the case of mild temperatures and based on the assumption of a 9% reduction in natural gas this year, Europe will get through the winter without significant difficulties, according to calculations by the International Energy Agency.

“If we have a winter 10% colder than average, the European gas system will come under pressure,” says Gergely Molnar, an analyst at the International Energy Agency.

An important factor is the level of reserves which are mainly held in depleted deposits or aquifers.

The accessibility of these reserves, which are 90% full, decreases as they are depleted, since, when the pressure decreases, the last 30% of the reserves are difficult to access.

This means that if there is a late cold snap in February or March, pressure on reserves will be low and this factor will be the Achilles heel of European gas supplies, the International Energy Agency warns.