With a new Selic high, know what to do with your investments

With the increase in the basic interest rate, fixed income has once again attracted the attention of Brazilian investors. The Selic, which started the year at 2%, reached the level of 9.25% last week, the highest value since 2017.

In the midst of this new scenario, what to do with investments? Is it time to switch from variable income to fixed income?

For Gabriel Mallet, Head of Fixed Income at Vitreo, the best strategy is diversification. “It’s not ideal to put all your eggs in one basket. It is necessary to diversify the portfolio both in indexes such as IPCA, CDI and Prefixed, and in the chosen terms, always according to the profile and objective of the investor”, he says.

“In relation to variable income, it also depends a lot on the profile of each one. But, in my view, the bag today is very cheap. Not only in the sense of high profitability, but as a composition of equity. Investments on the stock exchange should be treated as long-term investments: only then do you have a truly cohesive portfolio.”

For the moment, Mallet says that the ideal is to invest a portion in CDI, taking advantage of these constant highs, and in bonds linked to inflation.

If an investor invests R$ 10 thousand in a post-fixed fixed income product with a return of 100% of the CDI, for example, he will have a return of 9.25% per year or 0.73% per month. As it is a post-fixed product, this percentage can vary according to the interest rate movement.

“We can have a Selic reaching 12% next year, so this yield can increase even more”, says Luigi Wis, an investment specialist at Genial Investimentos.

There is also the possibility of a slowdown in inflation, which increases the possibility of a significant real gain in post-fixed fixed income in 2022.

“What investors should keep an eye on is the search for investment options that have a yield above 100% of the CDI in daily liquidity”, says Wis.

For those who want to leave the money invested for longer, Wis explains that the market already offers products with CDI from 115% to 120% for capital allocation of up to 12 months.

If the investor needs bonds with shorter maturities, it is better to follow fixed-rate bonds, whose rates are more attractive.

In addition to fixed income, Wis says that for the boldest investor, an option to be considered is the class of multimarket funds.

“These products aim to deliver a yield above the CDI, while at the same time having a much lower risk than investing directly in shares on the stock exchange,” he says.

Speaking of stock exchanges, investors who are tied to a share should not liquidate their positions solely on account of the increase in the Selic rate.

According to the specialists sought by the CNN Brasil Business, the look should be on the long term and investors, who already have a more aggressive risk profile, should consider that next year is a year of high volatility.

“Investors should avoid placing all their investments in riskier operations because of next year’s elections”, says Marília Fontes, founding partner of Nord Research consultancy.

The specialist says that for investors who accept a moderate risk, the ideal may be to separate 40% of investments in fixed income and the rest in variable income.

For the more conservative, the percentage is in a division of 90% for fixed income and 10% for variable income.

On the other hand, Ricardo Teixeira, coordinator of the MBA in Financial Management at FGV, argues that protection from instabilities is almost impossible.

For him, whatever the investor’s choice, there is a risk, especially at this time when the world economy has not recovered from nearly two years of pandemic.

“It is not possible to predict the future. We live with the present, and it usually surprises us, especially in moments of volatility”, he says. “Each one has to draw up their strategy according to what they believe in and, above all, according to their risk tolerance. The possibilities are many.”

*Under supervision of Ana Carolina Nunes