With an eye on the election, Erdogan is increasing and highlighting his achievements on the world stage

A series of diplomatic victories, culminating in an agreement to resume grain exports from Ukraine, offers Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan some temporary relief amid the country’s economic woes, while offering a blueprint for his campaign strategy for elections that will to be held next year, the Reuters agency notes in its analysis.

As Erdogan prepares for the biggest electoral challenge of his nearly 20-year rule, the president is touting his achievements on the world stage.

“Turkey is going through its strongest period politically, militarily and diplomatically,” the Turkish president told a crowd of thousands in northwestern Turkey at the weekend, a day after his talks in Russia with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The progress internationally contrasts with the bleak economic picture at home, with inflation soaring to 79% and the Turkish lira hovering near record lows hit during the most recent currency crisis in December.

Erdogan’s opponents accuse him of unorthodox economic policies, including a series of interest rate cuts despite high inflation and the sacking of three central bank governors since 2019, leaving the country with large current account deficits and foreign dependence funding to support the economy.

Erdogan said the fruits of the government’s economic policy – which prioritizes exports, production and investment – will become clearer in the first quarter of 2023.

International prestige

Meanwhile, government officials and senior members of the ruling party portray the president as a political man standing up to electoral rivals who fall short of his international credentials.

“Like it or not, Erdogan is a leader,” a senior Turkish official said, arguing that no other international figure had the same level of contacts with top global players. “There is no leader in Turkey who can replace him.”

The deal to resume exports from Ukraine, which have been disrupted since Russia invaded the country in February, could ease grain shortages that have left millions vulnerable to a food crisis and sent world prices soaring.

Brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, the deal came after Erdogan secured concessions from NATO on Nordic membership and began a rapprochement with rival powers in the Middle East.

Erdogan also won US President Joe Biden’s pledge in June to support the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, after Washington blocked Ankara from buying more advanced F-35 jets because of the Russian arms purchase.

Electoral test

The longest-serving ruler and most dominant political figure since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded modern Turkey nearly a century ago, Erdogan faces parliamentary and presidential elections due by June 2023.

A survey by polling firm Metropoll last week found a slight increase in support for Erdogan’s ruling party to 33.8 percent, still the largest of any single party. But the party faces an alliance of opposition parties and opinion polls show it trailing opposition presidential candidates.

At the top of voters’ concerns are the state of the economy and the presence of 3.6 million Syrian refugees, whom Turkey welcomed at the start of the Syrian conflict, but Turks increasingly see as competitors for jobs.

“The government is using foreign policy as leverage to cover up the economic disaster it has dragged the country into by telling stories of ‘diplomatic victories’ at home,” said Erdogan Toprak, a lawmaker for the main opposition CHP and a senior adviser to the party leader. , Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Toprak said that even on the diplomatic front, Erdogan is making concessions that “hurt the dignity of our country and drag it into weakness.”

Restoration of regional relations

Erdogan, who withstood massive anti-government protests in 2013 and an attempted coup in 2016, has sought to mend strained ties with other Middle Eastern powers, in part in hopes of attracting much-needed foreign capital.

The United Arab Emirates, an adversary of Turkey in the Libyan civil war and the Gulf dispute over Qatar, has joined China, Qatar and South Korea in currency swap deals with Ankara worth a total of $28 billion. Turkey also hopes for a deal with Saudi Arabia and has made moves to improve relations with Egypt and Israel.

“Voters know the benefits of diplomacy. They will occasionally complain about the economy or refugees, but they will vote for Erdogan to continue an effective Turkey,” a ruling party official said.

Key to Erdogan’s diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond is what he has called a “common understanding, based on mutual trust and respect” with Putin – a relationship that is of increasing concern to Turkey’s NATO partners after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia says it is conducting a “special military operation” to rid Ukraine of Nazis and protect Russian-speaking communities.

Turkey has tried to strike a balance by criticizing the Russian invasion and providing weapons to Ukraine while refusing to follow the West in imposing sanctions on Russia, a stance it says has helped its mediation efforts bear fruit.

“By securing the opening of the grain export corridor, we have once again confirmed Turkey’s role in solving world problems,” Erdogan said on Saturday.