With oil high, gasoline price lag is already 24%

The lag between the prices charged by Petrobras and those of the main trading exchanges in the world reached 24% for gasoline and 27% for diesel oil, according to a calculation by Pedro Shinzato, a Risk Management consultant at consultancy Stonex. This Wednesday, the 2nd, the price of a barrel of oil reached US$ 112.9.

To prevent the commodity’s rise from eroding its cash, Petrobras resorts to inventories purchased about two months ago, at lower prices. The risk is that the reserve will run out and the internal supply will be affected. The topic is discussed by the company’s management, which met yesterday morning to closely monitor oil fluctuations and try to define the next step.

If it decided to fully pass on the rise in oil prices to its customers, the price of a liter of gasoline at gas stations could rise from R$6.56 to R$7.15 and that of diesel oil, from R$5.65 to R$5.65. 6.64. The increases at the pumps would therefore be 9% and 17%, respectively, according to Shinzato’s accounts, who disregarded possible changes in other components of the consumer price, such as taxes.

“Since the beginning of the year, Petrobras has been continuously maintaining prices slightly below the PPI (on par with the international market). This difference calls into question the company’s pricing policy,” he says. Part of the record result of R$ 106 billion in 2021 was due to the transfer of high oil prices in the foreign market to the domestic market.

Luciano Losekann, an oil specialist and professor at the Faculty of Economics at the Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), says that the scenario is one of uncertainty, but that the barrel will hardly be traded at a level below US$ 100 in the coming days. “As it has been a month since the last readjustment, we should have an increase in the coming days, although I believe that Petrobras will not pass on the full increase to consumers, at first.”

Dependency

To make the scenario even more complicated, the company lost the contribution of other importers to serve the domestic market. Although Brazil has a surplus in oil, it has a deficit in refining and, therefore, domestic consumption is also covered by imports.

In the case of diesel, dependence on other countries is large, at 25%. As Petrobras prices have remained unchanged since the beginning of the year, competition, without the ability to compete, has folded its arms and, since January, has not provided a drop of gasoline or diesel. On the other hand, demand continues to grow, as it has since 2020. Imports by third parties are unfeasible, according to the president of the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), Sérgio Araújo.

This means that, practically, all responsibility for the supply of fuel lies with Petrobras and that, if anyone has to pay the bill for the rise in oil in Brazil, it will be the company. The size of the account will depend on the readjustment that will be announced.

quotes

Yesterday, oil contracts followed the pace of appreciation seen in recent days and returned to record strong appreciation. Brent for May – traded in London and the standard used by Petrobras – closed up 7.58%, at US$ 112.93 a barrel, the highest value since 2014. In New York, WTI for April had a gain of 6.95%, quoted at US$ 110.60 – highest level since 2011. (*WITH DOW JONES NEWSWIRES)