Without US help, Ukraine could lose the war by the end of the year, says CIA director

CIA Director Bill Burns warned on Thursday (18) that unless the US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year.

The statement is one of the Biden administration's most stark warnings about the risks in Ukraine, as the US Congress debates whether to approve an aid package for Kiev.

Just a month ago, Burns had warned in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee that if the US Congress did not approve additional support – long undermined by conservative opposition – “Ukraine is likely to lose significant ground by 2024.”

But on Thursday, during an appearance at the George W. Bush Center, he warned that Ukraine could be forced to surrender.

“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own until 2024,” Burns said.

“Without supplemental assistance, the outlook is dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he can dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

The warning comes as Joe Biden's administration is trying to seize an unexpected political opportunity on Capitol Hill to pressure the House to pass the long-stalled aid package.

The legislation also includes aid for Israel, and as a result, House Speaker Mike Johnson is under pressure to approve the package following the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend.

In an effort to satisfy divided politicians in the Republican party, some of whom support and some of whom oppose aid to Ukraine, he split the legislation into separate bills and Ukraine's aid share is expected to rise for a vote this Saturday. (20).

Burns did not elaborate on what “losing” the war would mean, and a source familiar with Western intelligence told CNN that if the package doesn't pass, officials still believe Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine from coast to coast.

But Russia could retake significant additional territory and effectively freeze the battle lines in place in a de facto ceasefire, similar to what happened after Moscow annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014. That would still be considered “a loss.” ”

Burns detailed the need for basic ammunition that Ukraine faces on the battlefield. He said two battalions – more than 2,000 men – had “15 artillery shells per day” and “a total of 42 mortar shells”, respectively.

“They were overwhelmed, and it wasn't for a lack of courage or determination on their part, and my concern is that we're going to see more Avdiivkas in the future without supplemental assistance,” Burns said, referring to a Ukrainian town recently lost to Russian advances. .

Ukraine's shortages of ammunition and military equipment, resulting from the struggle by the US and its allies to resupply the country's armed forces, have had an increasingly dire effect on the battlefield, the report said. CNN previously.